New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Carlos Rodón vs Robbie Ray · 78°F

4.2% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

49.8%

San Diego Padres win

50.2%

Fair line (home)

-101

Proj. total

8.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.53)San Diego Padres (mean 4.24)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.77

Over

56.3%

Under

43.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	49.8%	+115	+101
San Diego Padres	50.2%	-125	-101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Carlos Rodón LHP · New York Yankees	4.7	4.6	4.4	2.0	2.1
Robbie Ray LHP · San Diego Padres	5.2	5.4	5.0	2.4	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Carlos Rodón4+ 70%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Robbie Ray4+ 81%6+ 46%8+ 17%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.8	.691	.179	.013	.192	.456	1.170	.249	.325	.431	.756
Cody Bellinger	4.7	.683	.175	.022	.197	.522	.782	.261	.346	.456	.802
Amed Rosario	4.6	.754	.173	.021	.127	.260	1.026	.251	.299	.391	.690
Ben Rice	4.5	.495	.145	.019	.273	.572	1.078	.242	.346	.503	.849
Heliot Ramos	4.4	.604	.145	.016	.186	.405	1.178	.243	.322	.431	.753
George Lombard Jr.	4.3	.543	.154	.018	.096	.488	1.170	.218	.315	.347	.662
Spencer Jones	4.1	.479	.147	.010	.227	.382	1.525	.231	.307	.458	.764
José Caballero	4.0	.552	.132	.005	.098	.391	1.085	.220	.307	.341	.648
Austin Wells	3.9	.422	.129	.006	.160	.410	1.073	.207	.297	.386	.683

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.695	.182	.015	.223	.505	.947	.275	.361	.493	.854
Xander Bogaerts	4.5	.713	.166	.004	.117	.476	.845	.252	.337	.384	.722
Manny Machado	4.4	.618	.162	.003	.206	.442	.945	.253	.332	.454	.786
Ty France	4.3	.670	.148	.014	.143	.309	.908	.255	.330	.412	.743
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.597	.163	.030	.172	.293	.977	.250	.308	.442	.750
Luis Campusano	4.1	.566	.144	.005	.147	.442	.909	.240	.329	.407	.736
Freddy Fermin	4.0	.603	.138	.004	.094	.301	.854	.232	.297	.350	.647
Jake Cronenworth	3.8	.508	.145	.011	.095	.429	.838	.227	.327	.363	.690
Samad Taylor	3.7	.564	.104	.026	.077	.325	1.001	.229	.302	.343	.645

Data notes: away starter Carlos Rodón: only 60 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections