New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Max Fried vs Walker Buehler · 71°F

2.2% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

53.1%

San Diego Padres win

46.9%

Fair line (home)

+113

Proj. total

8.39

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.49)San Diego Padres (mean 3.90)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.39

Over

52.0%

Under

48.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	53.1%	-108	-113
San Diego Padres	46.9%	-100	+113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Max Fried LHP · New York Yankees	5.0	4.6	4.9	1.6	1.9
Walker Buehler RHP · San Diego Padres	4.7	4.4	4.6	2.1	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Max Fried4+ 69%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Walker Buehler4+ 65%6+ 27%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.8	.565	.169	.021	.256	.564	1.076	.241	.338	.475	.813
Cody Bellinger	4.7	.736	.184	.023	.162	.460	.712	.263	.339	.433	.772
Luis García Jr.	4.6	.718	.192	.024	.210	.268	.760	.266	.312	.469	.781
Spencer Jones	4.5	.540	.167	.015	.208	.389	1.548	.230	.304	.434	.738
Trent Grisham	4.4	.483	.145	.015	.174	.590	.958	.218	.330	.404	.734
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.3	.555	.117	.018	.175	.458	1.168	.229	.318	.409	.726
George Lombard Jr.	4.2	.551	.157	.020	.078	.444	1.101	.220	.313	.338	.651
Ryan McMahon	4.0	.467	.137	.004	.138	.476	1.259	.211	.310	.369	.679
Austin Wells	3.9	.451	.133	.006	.152	.388	1.008	.212	.298	.384	.683

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.753	.194	.015	.169	.440	.859	.277	.353	.457	.810
Samad Taylor	4.5	.723	.127	.037	.072	.338	1.162	.235	.298	.337	.634
Manny Machado	4.3	.647	.168	.002	.164	.386	.905	.249	.319	.417	.735
Ty France	4.3	.707	.159	.012	.122	.280	.874	.259	.327	.401	.728
Jackson Merrill	4.1	.639	.173	.030	.129	.269	.929	.252	.306	.413	.719
Austin Hays	4.0	.590	.156	.024	.115	.243	1.034	.235	.287	.381	.669
Xander Bogaerts	3.9	.680	.149	.004	.087	.361	.693	.260	.333	.379	.712
Luis Campusano	3.8	.573	.136	.004	.111	.350	.833	.240	.316	.380	.696
Jake Cronenworth	3.7	.520	.137	.011	.061	.366	.788	.224	.313	.328	.642

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections