Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Bubba Chandler vs Randy Vásquez · 75°F

2.7% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

46.9%

San Diego Padres win

53.1%

Fair line (home)

-113

Proj. total

9.04

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.52)San Diego Padres (mean 4.51)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.04

Over

50.7%

Under

49.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	46.9%	+122	+113
San Diego Padres	53.1%	-132	-113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bubba Chandler RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.8	3.8	5.0	2.3	2.4
Randy Vásquez RHP · San Diego Padres	4.5	3.4	4.9	1.6	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Bubba Chandler4+ 53%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Randy Vásquez4+ 44%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.8	.749	.214	.011	.136	.574	.747	.265	.362	.419	.781
Brandon Lowe	4.7	.639	.179	.010	.231	.405	1.164	.248	.318	.457	.775
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.687	.180	.018	.145	.453	1.057	.252	.336	.412	.748
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.558	.171	.011	.231	.454	1.223	.243	.328	.465	.793
Oneil Cruz	4.4	.568	.153	.015	.191	.470	1.291	.239	.327	.434	.761
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.770	.191	.019	.082	.269	.742	.269	.324	.389	.713
Jake Mangum	4.2	.806	.165	.020	.042	.201	.711	.264	.308	.348	.657
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.1	.612	.144	.015	.130	.347	1.043	.245	.316	.398	.714
Jacob Gonzalez	3.9	.557	.174	.010	.115	.281	.715	.236	.299	.385	.684

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.724	.199	.016	.191	.589	.839	.280	.379	.480	.859
Jake Cronenworth	4.6	.643	.171	.013	.100	.576	.882	.238	.350	.366	.715
Manny Machado	4.5	.651	.175	.003	.198	.490	.877	.261	.346	.458	.804
Ty France	4.3	.709	.164	.012	.136	.331	.843	.264	.346	.418	.764
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.649	.173	.025	.162	.341	.889	.260	.324	.443	.767
Luis Rengifo	4.1	.717	.138	.013	.085	.364	.684	.256	.331	.369	.699
Gavin Sheets	4.0	.551	.157	.005	.133	.456	.810	.240	.335	.401	.736
Xander Bogaerts	3.9	.656	.145	.004	.092	.440	.668	.261	.351	.386	.736
Freddy Fermin	3.8	.601	.139	.004	.084	.327	.761	.242	.315	.359	.674

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections