Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

September 7, 2026 · Jake Irvin vs Nick Pivetta · 85°F

1.9% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

37.5%

San Diego Padres win

62.5%

Fair line (home)

-167

Proj. total

9.19

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.10)San Diego Padres (mean 5.10)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.19

Over

52.1%

Under

40.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	37.5%	+175	+167
San Diego Padres	62.5%	-193	-167

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jake Irvin RHP · Washington Nationals	4.6	3.4	5.3	1.8	2.7
Nick Pivetta RHP · San Diego Padres	4.0	4.1	3.6	1.2	1.7

Strikeout ladder

Jake Irvin4+ 45%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Nick Pivetta4+ 61%6+ 22%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.531	.181	.010	.250	.646	1.497	.242	.350	.479	.829
Abimelec Ortiz	4.6	.531	.162	.008	.232	.347	1.205	.223	.288	.431	.719
Dylan Crews	4.5	.580	.152	.015	.156	.323	1.206	.220	.285	.378	.663
CJ Abrams	4.4	.564	.175	.025	.183	.311	1.079	.238	.304	.432	.737
Brady House	4.3	.643	.155	.012	.166	.214	1.244	.243	.286	.411	.697
Daylen Lile	4.2	.633	.157	.047	.138	.265	.895	.253	.307	.426	.733
Keibert Ruiz	4.0	.643	.161	.002	.131	.204	.576	.246	.292	.393	.685
Jorbit Vivas	3.9	.558	.138	.013	.058	.404	.669	.221	.312	.318	.630
Jacob Young	3.8	.603	.133	.017	.070	.271	.795	.235	.299	.343	.642

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.796	.216	.015	.239	.495	.745	.306	.387	.539	.926
Jake Cronenworth	4.6	.689	.181	.014	.114	.494	.823	.251	.347	.389	.736
Manny Machado	4.5	.703	.185	.004	.238	.424	.791	.281	.353	.507	.861
Ty France	4.3	.753	.175	.015	.164	.318	.749	.284	.358	.463	.821
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.695	.191	.033	.194	.288	.811	.283	.336	.497	.833
Luis Campusano	4.1	.662	.166	.006	.168	.430	.768	.273	.355	.459	.814
Dustin Harris	4.0	.678	.152	.026	.104	.321	.741	.262	.330	.404	.734
Xander Bogaerts	3.9	.710	.167	.005	.122	.395	.565	.288	.365	.444	.809
Ethan Salas	3.8	.618	.161	.016	.096	.298	.607	.256	.320	.395	.715

Data notes: home starter Nick Pivetta: only 35 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Nick Pivetta: only 31 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections