New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Gerrit Cole vs Michael King · 90°F

0.1% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

49.2%

San Diego Padres win

50.8%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

8.93

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.60)San Diego Padres (mean 4.33)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.93

Over

58.1%

Under

31.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	49.2%	-100	+103
San Diego Padres	50.8%	-108	-103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Gerrit Cole RHP · New York Yankees	5.4	4.9	5.5	1.5	2.6
Michael King RHP · San Diego Padres	5.4	5.7	5.1	2.1	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Gerrit Cole4+ 74%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Michael King4+ 84%6+ 51%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.8	.553	.164	.020	.276	.544	1.161	.243	.338	.490	.827
Cody Bellinger	4.7	.716	.179	.028	.188	.458	.762	.266	.341	.457	.799
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.703	.192	.024	.243	.262	.795	.272	.317	.499	.816
Spencer Jones	4.4	.531	.167	.012	.223	.364	1.620	.231	.300	.443	.743
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.3	.538	.124	.016	.203	.446	1.266	.229	.315	.427	.741
Jasson Domínguez	4.2	.658	.157	.006	.135	.335	1.040	.247	.312	.395	.706
George Lombard Jr.	4.1	.536	.157	.020	.090	.422	1.159	.220	.309	.347	.655
Ryan McMahon	4.0	.454	.131	.004	.152	.455	1.316	.210	.305	.378	.684
Austin Wells	3.9	.442	.129	.005	.164	.372	1.057	.212	.296	.394	.690

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.5	.712	.195	.016	.249	.391	.888	.284	.351	.520	.872
Jake Cronenworth	4.4	.633	.165	.012	.117	.395	.965	.234	.314	.370	.684
Manny Machado	4.3	.634	.170	.002	.230	.339	.912	.261	.323	.480	.802
Ty France	4.2	.689	.156	.011	.164	.250	.873	.263	.325	.436	.761
Jackson Merrill	4.1	.619	.165	.030	.188	.232	.952	.259	.306	.463	.769
Luis Campusano	4.0	.589	.150	.004	.161	.344	.900	.248	.318	.424	.742
Dustin Harris	3.9	.604	.136	.024	.109	.243	.855	.240	.294	.381	.675
Xander Bogaerts	3.8	.646	.146	.003	.120	.328	.699	.266	.334	.415	.749
Ethan Salas	3.7	.536	.140	.013	.096	.245	.714	.231	.287	.365	.652

Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections