Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

September 18, 2026 · Tyler Phillips vs Nick Pivetta · 71°F

6.0% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

40.5%

San Diego Padres win

59.5%

Fair line (home)

-147

Proj. total

8.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 3.73)San Diego Padres (mean 4.38)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.1

Over

50.0%

Under

50.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	40.5%	+184	+147
San Diego Padres	59.5%	-202	-147

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tyler Phillips RHP · Miami Marlins	3.3	2.2	3.7	1.3	1.6
Nick Pivetta RHP · San Diego Padres	4.0	4.4	3.5	1.2	1.5

Strikeout ladder

Tyler Phillips4+ 17%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Nick Pivetta4+ 67%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.7	.513	.159	.028	.189	.438	1.622	.212	.294	.399	.693
Heriberto Hernández	4.6	.509	.151	.013	.192	.428	1.449	.212	.292	.396	.688
Otto Lopez	4.5	.777	.172	.036	.087	.282	.787	.259	.311	.381	.692
Griffin Conine	4.3	.526	.132	.007	.186	.395	1.493	.218	.295	.397	.693
Javier Sanoja	4.3	.685	.204	.036	.088	.247	.490	.254	.300	.390	.690
Jakob Marsee	4.1	.514	.119	.034	.095	.478	1.067	.211	.312	.342	.655
Xavier Edwards	4.0	.761	.110	.038	.032	.363	.719	.258	.328	.335	.663
Joe Mack	3.9	.474	.116	.005	.145	.276	1.196	.205	.266	.360	.626
Agustín Ramírez	3.8	.471	.161	.011	.112	.296	.969	.218	.285	.368	.653

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.769	.206	.019	.188	.539	.765	.292	.380	.491	.871
Dustin Harris	4.5	.758	.160	.044	.090	.392	.834	.258	.329	.385	.714
Manny Machado	4.4	.675	.175	.003	.176	.459	.798	.262	.342	.442	.784
Ty France	4.3	.730	.178	.009	.121	.335	.785	.269	.346	.415	.761
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.677	.186	.034	.161	.309	.834	.274	.332	.465	.797
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.721	.162	.004	.087	.444	.646	.269	.354	.388	.742
Jake Cronenworth	4.0	.567	.153	.009	.079	.463	.767	.234	.336	.353	.689
Samad Taylor	3.9	.630	.113	.030	.065	.359	.931	.241	.317	.347	.664
Ethan Salas	3.8	.575	.147	.021	.077	.309	.675	.240	.307	.363	.670

Data notes: home starter Nick Pivetta: only 55 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Nick Pivetta: only 45 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections