Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Jackson Kent vs Walker Buehler · 82°F

4.3% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

42.6%

San Diego Padres win

57.4%

Fair line (home)

-135

Proj. total

9.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.43)San Diego Padres (mean 4.87)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.3

Over

52.7%

Under

47.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	42.6%	+156	+135
San Diego Padres	57.4%	-171	-135

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jackson Kent LHP · Washington Nationals	4.9	4.0	5.5	1.9	2.6
Walker Buehler RHP · San Diego Padres	4.6	3.8	4.9	1.7	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Jackson Kent4+ 57%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Walker Buehler4+ 53%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.8	.601	.201	.011	.240	.702	1.334	.259	.373	.492	.864
Dylan Crews	4.7	.654	.173	.020	.152	.353	1.093	.234	.303	.391	.694
Andrés Chaparro	4.6	.581	.181	.004	.205	.403	1.050	.236	.312	.432	.744
CJ Abrams	4.5	.629	.184	.027	.182	.346	.935	.254	.326	.449	.774
Yohandy Morales	4.3	.670	.170	.009	.162	.321	1.142	.253	.314	.422	.735
Daylen Lile	4.3	.685	.178	.056	.131	.289	.770	.268	.325	.442	.766
Keibert Ruiz	4.1	.693	.177	.004	.124	.224	.485	.257	.305	.401	.706
Nasim Nuñez	4.0	.678	.085	.022	.043	.391	.846	.230	.309	.301	.611
Jacob Young	3.9	.656	.148	.018	.071	.287	.692	.250	.316	.361	.677

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.793	.217	.018	.214	.514	.742	.303	.386	.521	.907
Xander Bogaerts	4.5	.822	.186	.004	.124	.461	.682	.280	.358	.419	.777
Manny Machado	4.4	.713	.179	.002	.211	.443	.786	.278	.353	.483	.835
Ty France	4.3	.759	.180	.016	.147	.325	.740	.283	.356	.451	.807
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.684	.198	.035	.174	.309	.805	.280	.337	.483	.820
Luis Campusano	4.1	.653	.168	.004	.150	.437	.762	.267	.350	.438	.788
Austin Hays	4.0	.620	.172	.026	.141	.281	.892	.259	.318	.434	.752
Samad Taylor	3.9	.654	.123	.040	.080	.343	.877	.254	.324	.379	.703
Jase Bowen	3.8	.546	.137	.037	.124	.235	1.020	.240	.294	.406	.700

Data notes: away starter Jackson Kent: only 26 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections