Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · Riley Cornelio vs Casey Mize · 87°F

3.7% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

40.9%

San Diego Padres win

59.1%

Fair line (home)

-144

Proj. total

9.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.36)San Diego Padres (mean 4.95)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.3

Over

53.0%

Under

39.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	40.9%	+163	+144
San Diego Padres	59.1%	-179	-144

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Riley Cornelio RHP · Washington Nationals	2.2	1.9	2.3	1.1	1.1
Casey Mize RHP · San Diego Padres	4.9	4.6	4.9	1.4	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Riley Cornelio4+ 10%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Casey Mize4+ 70%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.7	.599	.194	.010	.268	.591	1.368	.260	.357	.508	.865
Abimelec Ortiz	4.6	.554	.182	.008	.230	.319	1.102	.229	.288	.437	.725
Dylan Crews	4.5	.617	.153	.017	.160	.298	1.106	.228	.287	.388	.676
CJ Abrams	4.4	.608	.177	.027	.186	.297	.968	.248	.311	.444	.755
Brady House	4.3	.668	.165	.013	.175	.195	1.151	.251	.290	.427	.717
Daylen Lile	4.2	.658	.165	.058	.130	.249	.809	.259	.309	.431	.740
Yohandy Morales	4.1	.610	.165	.007	.167	.251	1.130	.250	.302	.430	.732
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.602	.155	.013	.071	.357	.592	.238	.318	.349	.667
Harry Ford	3.8	.491	.140	.004	.108	.402	1.014	.218	.308	.357	.666

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.769	.213	.016	.222	.559	.777	.298	.389	.521	.910
Jake Cronenworth	4.6	.649	.179	.014	.108	.565	.862	.242	.349	.377	.726
Manny Machado	4.5	.692	.178	.003	.219	.472	.816	.275	.355	.487	.842
Ty France	4.4	.736	.171	.015	.156	.359	.795	.278	.358	.451	.809
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.671	.184	.034	.180	.330	.852	.274	.336	.478	.814
Luis Campusano	4.2	.625	.154	.006	.162	.461	.801	.260	.348	.438	.786
Dustin Harris	4.0	.640	.153	.032	.101	.362	.775	.254	.328	.396	.725
Xander Bogaerts	3.9	.670	.159	.004	.105	.451	.625	.272	.361	.412	.774
Freddy Fermin	3.8	.623	.148	.004	.097	.308	.700	.251	.319	.379	.697

Data notes: away starter Riley Cornelio: only 56 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Riley Cornelio: only 51 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections