Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Eury Pérez vs Casey Mize · 70°F

4.0% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

45.5%

San Diego Padres win

54.5%

Fair line (home)

-120

Proj. total

7.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 3.88)San Diego Padres (mean 4.02)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.9

Over

47.8%

Under

52.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	45.5%	+136	+120
San Diego Padres	54.5%	-148	-120

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Eury Pérez RHP · Miami Marlins	5.1	5.4	4.6	2.1	2.1
Casey Mize RHP · San Diego Padres	5.0	4.3	4.9	1.4	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Eury Pérez4+ 80%6+ 46%8+ 16%

Casey Mize4+ 63%6+ 25%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.7	.864	.189	.038	.087	.279	.720	.268	.315	.387	.702
Heriberto Hernández	4.6	.564	.163	.016	.196	.412	1.309	.227	.302	.416	.717
Kyle Stowers	4.5	.539	.166	.026	.189	.388	1.412	.227	.302	.421	.723
Javier Sanoja	4.4	.750	.202	.035	.089	.241	.449	.261	.304	.391	.696
Xavier Edwards	4.3	.832	.128	.043	.038	.370	.673	.268	.335	.352	.687
Jakob Marsee	4.2	.548	.129	.036	.094	.453	.959	.220	.314	.352	.667
Agustín Ramírez	4.1	.524	.175	.013	.138	.294	.941	.228	.290	.392	.682
Joe Mack	3.9	.513	.130	.007	.147	.271	1.090	.219	.278	.379	.657
Esteury Ruiz	3.8	.521	.134	.018	.086	.294	1.091	.219	.294	.343	.637

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.674	.177	.016	.194	.547	.968	.267	.361	.466	.827
Dustin Harris	4.5	.662	.144	.038	.096	.401	1.040	.234	.311	.361	.672
Manny Machado	4.3	.607	.157	.002	.192	.463	.985	.248	.331	.438	.769
Ty France	4.3	.654	.154	.009	.129	.335	.952	.250	.331	.398	.729
Jackson Merrill	4.1	.591	.163	.033	.161	.308	1.017	.249	.310	.436	.747
Luis Campusano	4.0	.557	.136	.004	.133	.440	.955	.233	.324	.386	.711
Jake Cronenworth	3.9	.518	.136	.013	.076	.471	.906	.219	.326	.334	.660
Samad Taylor	3.8	.558	.106	.023	.070	.354	1.085	.221	.299	.326	.625
Freddy Fermin	3.7	.550	.131	.004	.083	.300	.850	.228	.297	.343	.641

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections