Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Brandon Pfaadt vs Casey Mize · 72°F

0.9% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

47.3%

San Diego Padres win

52.7%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

9.03

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.51)San Diego Padres (mean 4.52)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.03

Over

58.5%

Under

41.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	47.3%	+111	+112
San Diego Padres	52.7%	-121	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brandon Pfaadt RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	4.3	3.2	4.9	1.2	2.2
Casey Mize RHP · San Diego Padres	4.8	4.0	4.9	1.8	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Brandon Pfaadt4+ 40%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Casey Mize4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.8	.666	.190	.021	.147	.585	1.019	.244	.340	.405	.744
Ketel Marte	4.7	.704	.197	.022	.196	.433	.782	.265	.340	.461	.801
Gabriel Moreno	4.6	.818	.207	.011	.138	.450	.769	.286	.360	.442	.802
Geraldo Perdomo	4.5	.749	.143	.045	.087	.521	.641	.261	.354	.388	.742
Corbin Carroll	4.4	.521	.154	.088	.173	.458	1.002	.242	.330	.461	.791
Nolan Arenado	4.3	.615	.163	.012	.168	.304	.816	.243	.303	.418	.721
Tim Tawa	4.2	.550	.144	.020	.146	.301	1.084	.224	.285	.386	.671
Pavin Smith	4.0	.531	.135	.012	.122	.465	1.099	.224	.317	.372	.688
Jordan Lawlar	3.9	.519	.149	.026	.118	.251	1.175	.223	.282	.376	.658

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.800	.212	.021	.204	.423	.789	.296	.368	.504	.871
Dustin Harris	4.5	.792	.172	.040	.086	.317	.854	.261	.321	.383	.704
Manny Machado	4.4	.717	.186	.002	.190	.380	.808	.272	.338	.461	.798
Ty France	4.3	.765	.182	.013	.122	.272	.778	.277	.344	.424	.768
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.692	.184	.038	.162	.252	.847	.274	.323	.465	.788
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.749	.174	.007	.092	.369	.648	.277	.348	.403	.751
Luis Campusano	4.0	.649	.156	.005	.137	.348	.762	.263	.334	.422	.756
Jake Cronenworth	3.9	.595	.153	.019	.084	.369	.738	.247	.332	.376	.708
Samad Taylor	3.8	.636	.125	.032	.075	.302	.905	.253	.319	.373	.691

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections