Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Sandy Alcantara vs Walker Buehler · 70°F

3.0% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

44.7%

San Diego Padres win

55.3%

Fair line (home)

-124

Proj. total

8.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.11)San Diego Padres (mean 4.34)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.45

Over

46.0%

Under

46.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	44.7%	+135	+124
San Diego Padres	55.3%	-146	-124

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sandy Alcantara RHP · Miami Marlins	5.8	4.2	6.3	1.8	2.8
Walker Buehler RHP · San Diego Padres	4.6	4.0	4.6	1.8	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Sandy Alcantara4+ 62%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Walker Buehler4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Stowers	4.8	.577	.178	.029	.186	.485	1.437	.231	.319	.420	.739
Otto Lopez	4.6	.882	.188	.039	.083	.338	.660	.280	.338	.400	.739
Griffin Conine	4.5	.585	.149	.008	.193	.468	1.377	.233	.320	.417	.737
Heriberto Hernández	4.4	.548	.160	.014	.180	.474	1.208	.231	.321	.417	.737
Jakob Marsee	4.3	.571	.144	.039	.094	.543	.927	.229	.337	.365	.701
Javier Sanoja	4.2	.706	.210	.037	.076	.267	.405	.262	.312	.392	.705
Graham Pauley	4.1	.517	.155	.018	.124	.346	.967	.218	.291	.369	.660
Joe Mack	4.0	.527	.142	.007	.138	.306	1.059	.223	.289	.379	.668
Deyvison De Los Santos	3.9	.570	.129	.009	.130	.211	.894	.231	.279	.378	.657

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.802	.213	.018	.191	.450	.757	.297	.373	.497	.869
Dustin Harris	4.5	.772	.171	.042	.093	.314	.830	.261	.321	.390	.711
Manny Machado	4.4	.707	.175	.002	.170	.389	.804	.265	.332	.438	.770
Ty France	4.3	.755	.179	.011	.134	.266	.764	.278	.345	.433	.778
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.684	.183	.043	.158	.259	.835	.274	.324	.465	.789
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.746	.159	.008	.089	.380	.646	.273	.347	.394	.741
Jake Cronenworth	4.0	.603	.149	.018	.080	.384	.717	.242	.330	.363	.693
Samad Taylor	3.9	.648	.119	.033	.072	.299	.904	.248	.312	.361	.673
Ethan Salas	3.7	.579	.150	.024	.086	.256	.658	.243	.300	.376	.676

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections