Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Kyle Freeland vs Tyler Mahle · 65°F

3.9% edge · San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies win

39.0%

San Francisco Giants win

61.1%

Fair line (home)

-157

Proj. total

9.19

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.16)San Francisco Giants (mean 5.03)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.19

Over

47.6%

Under

52.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	39.0%	+129	+157
San Francisco Giants	61.1%	-140	-157

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.889	.180	.073	.079	.326	.769	.277	.335	.405	.741
Mickey Moniak	4.7	.706	.195	.064	.164	.267	1.082	.257	.304	.443	.747
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.601	.206	.019	.188	.325	1.228	.241	.302	.434	.736
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.745	.199	.017	.095	.420	.740	.265	.342	.396	.738
Kyle Karros	4.3	.723	.208	.022	.072	.468	.893	.267	.352	.389	.741
Troy Johnston	4.3	.734	.201	.017	.065	.321	.791	.262	.326	.373	.699
Edouard Julien	4.1	.614	.145	.015	.076	.572	1.098	.241	.351	.354	.705
Ezequiel Tovar	4.0	.620	.201	.019	.087	.230	.922	.245	.292	.378	.671
Brett Sullivan	3.9	.585	.163	.029	.064	.276	.641	.233	.292	.347	.639

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heliot Ramos	4.7	.903	.225	.035	.167	.301	.928	.307	.360	.491	.850
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.169	.228	.052	.042	.201	.151	.343	.377	.449	.826
Casey Schmitt	4.5	.824	.219	.015	.159	.202	.760	.290	.331	.463	.794
Rafael Devers	4.3	.671	.227	.011	.195	.427	.921	.284	.360	.499	.859
Willy Adames	4.3	.668	.204	.014	.160	.373	.887	.272	.341	.457	.798
Bryce Eldridge	4.1	.714	.206	.004	.141	.349	.994	.283	.349	.453	.803
Jung Hoo Lee	4.0	.870	.224	.047	.066	.217	.320	.319	.362	.455	.817
Jesus Rodriguez	3.9	.830	.169	.018	.059	.285	.495	.298	.355	.405	.760
Drew Gilbert	3.8	.637	.185	.028	.087	.273	.570	.269	.332	.414	.746

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections