Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

August 10, 2026 · Hayden Wesneski vs Blade Tidwell · 60°F

2.3% edge · San Francisco Giants

Houston Astros win

54.7%

San Francisco Giants win

45.3%

Fair line (home)

+121

Proj. total

7.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.07)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.39)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.46

Over

36.1%

Under

56.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	54.7%	-139	-121
San Francisco Giants	45.3%	+128	+121

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.848	.212	.012	.095	.316	.789	.265	.325	.383	.708
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.715	.202	.007	.189	.690	.764	.282	.396	.481	.877
Isaac Paredes	4.6	.612	.168	.006	.131	.551	.712	.233	.343	.379	.721
Jose Altuve	4.5	.729	.174	.011	.107	.416	.763	.253	.328	.381	.709
Taylor Trammell	4.4	.503	.157	.018	.098	.500	1.301	.203	.302	.330	.632
Christian Walker	4.3	.536	.150	.009	.141	.400	1.006	.219	.303	.375	.678
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.534	.159	.029	.106	.376	.917	.221	.298	.364	.662
Cam Smith	4.0	.575	.159	.024	.083	.372	.954	.232	.312	.358	.669
Christian Vázquez	3.9	.613	.132	.004	.057	.287	.711	.223	.286	.310	.596

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jung Hoo Lee	4.5	.806	.207	.043	.065	.306	.530	.271	.327	.388	.715
Willy Adames	4.4	.538	.163	.010	.150	.440	1.212	.220	.304	.383	.687
Bryce Eldridge	4.3	.565	.172	.004	.138	.423	1.322	.230	.313	.385	.698
Rafael Devers	4.2	.502	.168	.007	.169	.492	1.166	.231	.328	.420	.748
Osleivis Basabe	4.1	.638	.172	.010	.051	.246	.771	.230	.284	.321	.605
Drew Gilbert	4.0	.535	.149	.023	.088	.354	.814	.224	.305	.353	.658
Drew Cavanaugh	3.9	.488	.135	.006	.065	.390	1.226	.204	.298	.305	.603
Grant McCray	3.7	.462	.135	.023	.068	.310	1.185	.202	.274	.316	.589
Christian Koss	3.6	.563	.152	.012	.057	.178	.847	.232	.281	.334	.615

Data notes: home starter Blade Tidwell: only 37 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Blade Tidwell: only 32 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Hayden Wesneski: only 17 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Hayden Wesneski: only 31 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections