Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

August 12, 2026 · Bryan King vs Adrian Houser · 61°F

0.9% edge · San Francisco Giants

Houston Astros win

56.8%

San Francisco Giants win

43.2%

Fair line (home)

+132

Proj. total

7.49

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.14)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.35)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

7.49

Over

35.6%

Under

64.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	56.8%	-143	-132
San Francisco Giants	43.2%	+132	+132

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.896	.220	.011	.099	.298	.704	.275	.332	.396	.728
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.771	.215	.008	.196	.641	.691	.296	.401	.500	.900
Isaac Paredes	4.6	.645	.184	.007	.129	.518	.632	.242	.345	.388	.734
Daulton Varsho	4.5	.600	.189	.033	.124	.387	.905	.232	.305	.386	.690
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.4	.596	.142	.015	.084	.622	.963	.224	.342	.338	.680
Cam Smith	4.3	.672	.172	.020	.090	.373	.930	.246	.320	.370	.690
Taylor Trammell	4.2	.493	.161	.021	.095	.469	1.163	.209	.306	.342	.647
Nick Allen	4.1	.698	.165	.006	.029	.324	.712	.241	.307	.312	.618
Christian Vázquez	4.0	.636	.141	.007	.057	.274	.643	.230	.289	.319	.608

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jung Hoo Lee	4.5	.791	.205	.043	.064	.344	.541	.268	.331	.385	.715
Willy Adames	4.4	.506	.154	.010	.142	.498	1.232	.209	.304	.364	.668
Bryce Eldridge	4.3	.538	.154	.004	.130	.477	1.345	.217	.310	.362	.673
Rafael Devers	4.2	.494	.160	.006	.158	.542	1.172	.226	.333	.405	.738
Victor Bericoto	4.1	.596	.133	.017	.098	.271	1.085	.222	.279	.343	.621
Drew Gilbert	4.0	.515	.147	.020	.087	.400	.833	.218	.309	.345	.654
Osleivis Basabe	3.9	.587	.157	.010	.046	.265	.761	.224	.284	.312	.596
Drew Cavanaugh	3.8	.459	.121	.004	.061	.406	1.226	.196	.299	.291	.590
Christian Koss	3.6	.547	.152	.011	.053	.201	.888	.226	.281	.325	.606

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections