Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

August 11, 2026 · Hunter Brown vs Carson Whisenhunt · 59°F

2.1% edge · San Francisco Giants

Houston Astros win

60.8%

San Francisco Giants win

39.2%

Fair line (home)

+155

Proj. total

7.57

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.35)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.21)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.57

Over

37.5%

Under

54.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	60.8%	-179	-155
San Francisco Giants	39.2%	+164	+155

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.856	.222	.011	.095	.325	.736	.267	.329	.386	.715
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.743	.213	.008	.197	.700	.703	.293	.407	.500	.906
Isaac Paredes	4.6	.632	.175	.007	.135	.553	.671	.239	.346	.389	.735
Jose Altuve	4.5	.747	.171	.010	.101	.419	.721	.254	.329	.375	.704
Christian Walker	4.4	.565	.171	.009	.149	.410	.967	.228	.311	.390	.700
Nelson Velázquez	4.3	.555	.154	.009	.128	.406	1.068	.220	.300	.364	.664
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.543	.170	.032	.112	.384	.880	.227	.305	.378	.683
Cam Smith	4.1	.594	.165	.022	.081	.376	.906	.236	.314	.359	.673
Yainer Diaz	4.0	.694	.176	.008	.107	.182	.594	.263	.301	.400	.701

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jung Hoo Lee	4.5	.789	.206	.046	.059	.350	.587	.267	.330	.382	.713
Willy Adames	4.4	.512	.157	.011	.128	.493	1.306	.208	.302	.354	.656
Bryce Eldridge	4.3	.548	.164	.004	.114	.469	1.412	.219	.310	.355	.664
Rafael Devers	4.2	.486	.158	.007	.139	.531	1.245	.218	.324	.380	.704
Victor Bericoto	4.1	.613	.138	.017	.093	.269	1.133	.226	.282	.345	.626
Drew Gilbert	4.0	.519	.140	.023	.074	.391	.912	.214	.303	.328	.631
Osleivis Basabe	3.9	.582	.159	.009	.038	.252	.814	.220	.278	.301	.579
Drew Cavanaugh	3.8	.456	.122	.005	.058	.397	1.276	.195	.293	.288	.581
Christian Koss	3.6	.534	.151	.011	.046	.190	.957	.219	.271	.311	.582

Data notes: home starter Carson Whisenhunt: only 24 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections