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4.4% edge · San Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds
August 14, 2026 · Kyle Freeland vs Landen Roupp · 61°F
Colorado Rockies win
40.4%
San Francisco Giants win
59.6%
Fair line (home)
-148
Proj. total
8.26
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Colorado Rockies (mean 3.79)San Francisco Giants (mean 4.47)
Totals
O/U line
7.5
Proj. total
8.26
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 40.4% | +119 | +148 |
| San Francisco Giants | 59.6% | -129 | -148 |
Colorado Rockies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy | 4.8 | .876 | .179 | .069 | .068 | .358 | .789 | .275 | .339 | .395 | .734 |
| Mickey Moniak | 4.7 | .685 | .190 | .051 | .138 | .282 | 1.145 | .246 | .297 | .409 | .706 |
| Willi Castro | 4.5 | .717 | .173 | .026 | .064 | .404 | 1.079 | .243 | .326 | .346 | .672 |
| TJ Rumfield | 4.4 | .728 | .195 | .016 | .081 | .438 | .780 | .259 | .342 | .379 | .720 |
| Troy Johnston | 4.3 | .738 | .203 | .018 | .059 | .362 | .839 | .261 | .333 | .368 | .701 |
| Connor Norby | 4.2 | .601 | .170 | .007 | .070 | .387 | 1.207 | .223 | .303 | .327 | .630 |
| Zac Veen | 4.1 | .641 | .176 | .032 | .073 | .351 | .926 | .247 | .316 | .370 | .686 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 4.0 | .611 | .196 | .016 | .074 | .232 | .958 | .240 | .288 | .360 | .649 |
| Brett Sullivan | 3.9 | .571 | .167 | .026 | .050 | .292 | .677 | .229 | .292 | .333 | .625 |
San Francisco Giants — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonah Cox | 4.6 | .940 | .199 | .063 | .068 | .239 | .953 | .293 | .336 | .414 | .750 |
| Rafael Devers | 4.5 | .702 | .233 | .011 | .203 | .444 | .953 | .286 | .362 | .501 | .862 |
| Bryce Eldridge | 4.4 | .740 | .225 | .005 | .149 | .377 | 1.066 | .281 | .348 | .453 | .801 |
| Victor Bericoto | 4.3 | .841 | .181 | .023 | .114 | .210 | .824 | .286 | .324 | .426 | .750 |
| Jung Hoo Lee | 4.2 | .890 | .244 | .051 | .065 | .227 | .329 | .319 | .361 | .457 | .818 |
| Osleivis Basabe | 4.1 | .764 | .219 | .014 | .057 | .189 | .572 | .274 | .315 | .383 | .698 |
| Buddy Kennedy | 4.0 | .684 | .192 | .015 | .084 | .341 | .683 | .273 | .347 | .406 | .753 |
| Andrew Knizner | 3.9 | .677 | .175 | .011 | .088 | .263 | .658 | .270 | .333 | .400 | .733 |
| Christian Koss | 3.7 | .718 | .191 | .016 | .060 | .157 | .662 | .279 | .318 | .392 | .710 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections