Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

August 24, 2026 · Chase Burns vs Carson Whisenhunt · 60°F

5.5% edge · San Francisco Giants

Cincinnati Reds win

55.9%

San Francisco Giants win

44.1%

Fair line (home)

+127

Proj. total

7.34

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.04)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.30)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.34

Over

42.3%

Under

57.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	55.9%	-168	-127
San Francisco Giants	44.1%	+154	+127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Chase Burns RHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.4	5.8	4.6	1.8	1.7
Carson Whisenhunt LHP · San Francisco Giants	5.0	4.4	4.7	2.2	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Chase Burns4+ 86%6+ 54%8+ 21%

Carson Whisenhunt4+ 66%6+ 29%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.8	.727	.194	.046	.132	.512	1.114	.258	.343	.418	.761
Sal Stewart	4.7	.722	.212	.003	.152	.468	.840	.260	.340	.421	.761
Dane Myers	4.6	.772	.157	.006	.081	.419	.999	.247	.324	.347	.671
Tyler Stephenson	4.5	.651	.181	.006	.103	.537	1.035	.241	.338	.369	.707
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.534	.151	.004	.167	.445	1.215	.221	.313	.391	.704
Matt McLain	4.3	.559	.172	.005	.092	.494	1.021	.222	.321	.345	.666
JJ Bleday	4.2	.505	.166	.016	.123	.564	.792	.227	.335	.385	.720
Jose Trevino	4.0	.656	.166	.004	.083	.243	.572	.241	.291	.353	.643
Ivan Johnson	3.9	.533	.137	.011	.075	.322	1.084	.213	.288	.321	.608

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.5	.610	.168	.030	.101	.408	.975	.225	.305	.357	.662
Rafael Devers	4.4	.534	.179	.008	.181	.527	1.268	.235	.331	.427	.758
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.748	.196	.041	.069	.310	.579	.268	.327	.390	.718
Turner Hill	4.2	.692	.152	.043	.045	.375	.685	.247	.322	.347	.668
Drew Cavanaugh	4.1	.536	.139	.007	.079	.408	1.312	.210	.300	.318	.618
Nate Furman	4.0	.631	.147	.014	.049	.351	.760	.234	.310	.324	.634
Shay Whitcomb	3.9	.493	.123	.009	.116	.241	1.241	.206	.262	.342	.603
Grant McCray	3.7	.449	.126	.023	.076	.325	1.212	.199	.273	.317	.590
Christian Koss	3.6	.557	.147	.012	.052	.175	.926	.226	.272	.323	.594

Data notes: home starter Carson Whisenhunt: only 35 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections