Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Brady Singer vs Adrian Houser · 64°F

3.9% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

53.2%

San Francisco Giants win

46.8%

Fair line (home)

+114

Proj. total

8.19

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.34)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.85)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.19

Over

51.0%

Under

49.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	53.2%	-101	-114
San Francisco Giants	46.8%	-107	+114

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brady Singer RHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.3	4.4	5.4	1.7	2.2
Adrian Houser RHP · San Francisco Giants	4.4	3.3	4.5	1.7	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Brady Singer4+ 65%6+ 27%8+ 6%

Adrian Houser4+ 43%6+ 11%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.8	.766	.201	.065	.135	.510	1.047	.271	.353	.442	.794
Sal Stewart	4.7	.749	.234	.003	.157	.435	.794	.269	.342	.436	.778
JJ Bleday	4.6	.589	.196	.018	.142	.593	.830	.236	.338	.401	.739
Tyler Stephenson	4.5	.686	.196	.005	.103	.475	.997	.248	.335	.376	.711
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.559	.161	.004	.168	.411	1.173	.228	.313	.400	.713
Matt McLain	4.3	.615	.184	.004	.093	.449	.979	.236	.325	.361	.686
Héctor Rodríguez	4.2	.681	.164	.029	.115	.243	.713	.253	.302	.398	.700
Ke'Bryan Hayes	4.1	.711	.149	.022	.057	.279	.656	.250	.308	.347	.655
TJ Friedl	4.0	.625	.138	.016	.064	.392	.625	.242	.331	.345	.677

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.6	.680	.181	.036	.111	.394	.787	.246	.324	.388	.712
Rafael Devers	4.5	.591	.203	.008	.198	.525	1.090	.257	.351	.465	.816
Jung Hoo Lee	4.4	.812	.218	.043	.075	.275	.432	.286	.341	.418	.759
Turner Hill	4.3	.753	.182	.043	.049	.333	.555	.266	.333	.372	.706
Drew Cavanaugh	4.2	.597	.159	.008	.085	.408	1.131	.232	.323	.349	.672
Nate Furman	4.0	.702	.165	.013	.054	.346	.635	.256	.330	.352	.683
Shay Whitcomb	4.0	.559	.142	.011	.128	.243	1.072	.229	.285	.379	.664
Grant McCray	3.8	.514	.149	.029	.084	.324	1.081	.223	.295	.355	.650
Christian Koss	3.7	.624	.165	.011	.062	.168	.788	.247	.292	.354	.647

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections