Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Nick Lodolo vs Landen Roupp · 72°F

1.2% edge · San Francisco Giants

Cincinnati Reds win

48.6%

San Francisco Giants win

51.4%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

7.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.01)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.89)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.9

Over

47.9%

Under

52.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	48.6%	-103	+106
San Francisco Giants	51.4%	-105	-106

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nick Lodolo LHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.1	4.4	5.2	1.4	2.1
Landen Roupp RHP · San Francisco Giants	5.2	5.2	4.7	2.3	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Nick Lodolo4+ 65%6+ 27%8+ 7%

Landen Roupp4+ 78%6+ 43%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Héctor Rodríguez	4.8	.735	.170	.033	.138	.317	.963	.242	.297	.388	.685
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.695	.175	.056	.130	.550	1.176	.258	.350	.423	.773
Sal Stewart	4.6	.670	.203	.003	.143	.471	.914	.251	.335	.408	.743
JJ Bleday	4.5	.543	.175	.017	.132	.643	.934	.229	.344	.389	.732
Eugenio Suárez	4.3	.506	.149	.002	.161	.451	1.322	.213	.307	.379	.686
Dane Myers	4.2	.680	.145	.005	.073	.411	1.033	.239	.321	.337	.658
Matt McLain	4.1	.551	.170	.004	.087	.475	1.085	.225	.322	.346	.668
Jose Trevino	4.0	.652	.158	.004	.077	.265	.633	.239	.293	.345	.638
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.9	.645	.140	.022	.059	.304	.731	.242	.306	.343	.649

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonah Cox	4.6	.822	.145	.092	.071	.239	1.131	.265	.312	.391	.704
Rafael Devers	4.5	.585	.196	.007	.192	.522	1.113	.253	.351	.456	.807
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.817	.208	.043	.071	.278	.457	.285	.344	.413	.756
Buddy Kennedy	4.2	.660	.166	.015	.080	.390	.835	.246	.334	.362	.696
Osleivis Basabe	4.2	.719	.180	.013	.082	.217	.688	.257	.306	.373	.680
Turner Hill	4.0	.709	.175	.043	.050	.329	.541	.269	.342	.382	.723
Andrew Knizner	3.9	.591	.147	.008	.092	.307	.818	.238	.317	.363	.679
Shay Whitcomb	3.8	.533	.125	.011	.129	.230	1.067	.227	.286	.379	.665
Christian Koss	3.7	.611	.149	.011	.067	.166	.834	.244	.292	.352	.644

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections