Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Kohl Drake vs Blade Tidwell · 63°F

0.1% edge · San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks win

52.1%

San Francisco Giants win

47.9%

Fair line (home)

+109

Proj. total

7.92

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.19)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.73)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.92

Over

40.2%

Under

52.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	52.1%	-114	-109
San Francisco Giants	47.9%	+105	+109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kohl Drake LHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	4.5	3.6	4.5	1.4	1.7
Blade Tidwell RHP · San Francisco Giants	2.6	1.8	2.5	1.2	1.0

Strikeout ladder

Kohl Drake4+ 49%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Blade Tidwell4+ 10%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	4.8	.699	.195	.025	.090	.717	.835	.246	.363	.372	.735
Corbin Carroll	4.7	.615	.168	.112	.125	.591	.855	.250	.352	.438	.790
Gabriel Moreno	4.6	.860	.226	.016	.078	.519	.631	.290	.375	.411	.786
Geraldo Perdomo	4.5	.749	.155	.049	.059	.624	.498	.263	.373	.375	.748
Tim Tawa	4.4	.641	.173	.018	.104	.385	.943	.234	.307	.364	.671
Jose Fernandez	4.3	.721	.176	.029	.065	.203	.916	.243	.284	.348	.631
James McCann	4.2	.692	.179	.007	.082	.235	.906	.246	.296	.358	.655
Ildemaro Vargas	4.1	.733	.155	.043	.048	.254	.387	.258	.311	.360	.671
Jordan Lawlar	4.0	.582	.169	.023	.067	.320	.965	.235	.307	.350	.657

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonah Cox	4.6	.849	.144	.091	.053	.259	1.033	.267	.314	.381	.695
Rafael Devers	4.4	.595	.193	.010	.155	.549	1.038	.247	.346	.423	.769
Bryce Eldridge	4.3	.622	.180	.004	.132	.469	1.170	.244	.331	.396	.727
Andrew Knizner	4.2	.657	.162	.008	.075	.346	.801	.236	.310	.341	.651
Jung Hoo Lee	4.1	.769	.207	.043	.056	.282	.399	.282	.339	.403	.742
Shay Whitcomb	4.0	.590	.148	.009	.108	.254	1.047	.229	.286	.361	.646
Turner Hill	3.9	.707	.171	.040	.035	.339	.471	.270	.341	.371	.712
Christian Koss	3.8	.652	.173	.013	.050	.180	.773	.249	.294	.346	.640
Osleivis Basabe	3.7	.644	.163	.010	.053	.200	.561	.252	.301	.351	.652

Data notes: home starter Blade Tidwell: only 73 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Blade Tidwell: only 58 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Kohl Drake: only 25 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Kohl Drake: only 52 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections