Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Merrill Kelly vs Matt Wilkinson · 62°F

3.0% edge · San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks win

47.7%

San Francisco Giants win

52.3%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

8.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.01)San Francisco Giants (mean 4.04)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.05

Over

41.8%

Under

50.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	47.7%	-107	+110
San Francisco Giants	52.3%	-101	-110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Merrill Kelly RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.5	4.2	5.8	1.9	2.5
Matt Wilkinson LHP · San Francisco Giants	3.0	2.1	2.9	1.1	1.1

Strikeout ladder

Merrill Kelly4+ 61%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Matt Wilkinson4+ 14%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ildemaro Vargas	4.8	.856	.175	.039	.060	.279	.456	.252	.303	.349	.652
Corbin Carroll	4.7	.592	.178	.112	.126	.566	.855	.248	.348	.440	.788
Gabriel Moreno	4.6	.857	.217	.014	.076	.497	.634	.287	.370	.403	.773
Geraldo Perdomo	4.5	.753	.152	.043	.062	.552	.506	.261	.361	.370	.731
Nolan Arenado	4.4	.688	.180	.015	.107	.380	.649	.250	.321	.384	.705
Tim Tawa	4.3	.609	.172	.019	.095	.350	.918	.230	.298	.357	.655
Jose Fernandez	4.2	.698	.163	.028	.063	.199	.882	.242	.283	.346	.628
Jordan Lawlar	4.0	.584	.177	.028	.068	.322	.995	.234	.305	.353	.658
Ryan Waldschmidt	3.9	.602	.170	.026	.050	.365	.934	.243	.325	.349	.674

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.6	.731	.196	.034	.092	.408	.724	.254	.328	.384	.712
Rafael Devers	4.5	.634	.208	.009	.167	.547	1.003	.260	.354	.445	.799
Bryce Eldridge	4.4	.649	.192	.004	.143	.469	1.121	.254	.337	.415	.752
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.821	.222	.046	.063	.287	.388	.291	.345	.419	.764
Turner Hill	4.2	.775	.190	.045	.043	.359	.483	.278	.346	.386	.733
Drew Cavanaugh	4.1	.621	.170	.009	.069	.414	1.032	.240	.327	.349	.676
Shay Whitcomb	4.0	.595	.148	.013	.116	.252	1.005	.237	.292	.379	.670
Nate Furman	3.9	.704	.157	.013	.042	.330	.556	.263	.334	.351	.685
Christian Koss	3.7	.655	.171	.013	.053	.172	.733	.253	.295	.354	.649

Data notes: home starter Matt Wilkinson: only 6 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Matt Wilkinson: only 19 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections