St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

September 7, 2026 · Michael McGreevy vs Logan Webb · 70°F

0.2% edge · San Francisco Giants

St. Louis Cardinals win

44.5%

San Francisco Giants win

55.5%

Fair line (home)

-124

Proj. total

7.94

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 3.83)San Francisco Giants (mean 4.11)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.94

Over

48.4%

Under

51.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	44.5%	+119	+124
San Francisco Giants	55.5%	-129	-124

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael McGreevy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.1	3.3	5.9	1.2	2.4
Logan Webb RHP · San Francisco Giants	5.7	5.0	5.8	1.5	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Michael McGreevy4+ 41%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Logan Webb4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bryan Torres	4.7	.936	.181	.037	.041	.422	.788	.278	.347	.367	.713
Iván Herrera	4.6	.822	.191	.010	.082	.448	.776	.271	.358	.383	.741
Alec Burleson	4.5	.839	.215	.012	.103	.306	.627	.279	.333	.410	.743
Jordan Walker	4.4	.758	.223	.009	.101	.284	1.019	.266	.318	.398	.716
Leo Bernal	4.3	.705	.157	.015	.070	.278	.851	.236	.290	.336	.626
Nolan Gorman	4.2	.516	.132	.007	.108	.410	1.326	.202	.283	.326	.610
Joshua Báez	4.1	.586	.173	.021	.124	.228	1.128	.237	.289	.391	.680
Thomas Saggese	4.0	.680	.175	.016	.066	.225	.908	.252	.301	.361	.662
Nathan Church	3.9	.711	.146	.026	.054	.195	.575	.258	.301	.356	.657

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Turner Hill	4.6	.912	.235	.045	.052	.331	.443	.297	.354	.412	.766
Rafael Devers	4.5	.668	.220	.010	.175	.484	.873	.272	.357	.466	.823
Bryce Eldridge	4.4	.725	.194	.005	.150	.391	1.005	.273	.343	.439	.782
Jonah Cox	4.3	.857	.146	.083	.065	.216	.864	.287	.328	.413	.741
Jung Hoo Lee	4.2	.843	.209	.043	.058	.238	.335	.297	.344	.418	.762
Osleivis Basabe	4.0	.750	.196	.012	.065	.197	.520	.268	.310	.376	.686
Andrew Knizner	3.9	.676	.170	.010	.075	.270	.641	.258	.319	.373	.692
Shay Whitcomb	3.8	.598	.146	.011	.110	.205	.869	.241	.288	.380	.668
Christian Koss	3.7	.677	.175	.012	.048	.147	.692	.261	.299	.359	.658

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections