St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · Quinn Mathews vs Landen Roupp · 68°F

0.9% edge · San Francisco Giants

St. Louis Cardinals win

49.1%

San Francisco Giants win

50.9%

Fair line (home)

-104

Proj. total

7.94

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.04)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.90)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.94

Over

48.6%

Under

51.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	49.1%	-104	+104
San Francisco Giants	50.9%	-104	-104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Quinn Mathews LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.0	4.7	4.8	2.4	2.1
Landen Roupp RHP · San Francisco Giants	5.1	4.5	5.0	2.3	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Quinn Mathews4+ 70%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Landen Roupp4+ 67%6+ 29%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bryan Torres	4.8	.885	.173	.033	.043	.569	.821	.268	.358	.355	.713
Iván Herrera	4.7	.786	.183	.009	.090	.583	.820	.264	.371	.381	.752
Alec Burleson	4.6	.786	.207	.009	.116	.425	.658	.268	.341	.406	.747
Jordan Walker	4.5	.712	.208	.010	.113	.411	1.046	.256	.330	.395	.725
Leo Bernal	4.4	.693	.154	.018	.075	.377	.893	.235	.306	.339	.645
Nolan Gorman	4.3	.491	.128	.007	.124	.548	1.358	.201	.306	.339	.645
Thomas Saggese	4.2	.686	.172	.016	.070	.292	.955	.245	.304	.353	.657
Masyn Winn	4.1	.678	.168	.018	.050	.370	.719	.250	.325	.346	.671
Nathan Church	4.0	.710	.148	.024	.062	.263	.592	.258	.313	.362	.675

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonah Cox	4.6	.840	.141	.089	.064	.351	1.103	.268	.329	.388	.717
Rafael Devers	4.5	.603	.192	.007	.145	.696	1.025	.251	.374	.421	.795
Bryce Eldridge	4.4	.639	.173	.004	.122	.594	1.154	.248	.355	.393	.748
Osleivis Basabe	4.3	.730	.186	.011	.062	.316	.645	.251	.314	.351	.665
Turner Hill	4.2	.786	.184	.036	.042	.461	.493	.285	.372	.388	.760
Andrew Knizner	4.1	.612	.157	.008	.080	.408	.783	.237	.327	.351	.678
Shay Whitcomb	4.0	.565	.143	.009	.105	.298	1.048	.225	.290	.355	.645
Grant McCray	3.9	.516	.146	.030	.062	.408	1.049	.219	.308	.333	.641
Christian Koss	3.8	.629	.167	.013	.053	.220	.789	.247	.301	.348	.649

Data notes: away starter Quinn Mathews: only 20 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections