San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Robbie Ray vs Anthony Molina · 62°F

3.7% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres win

53.3%

San Francisco Giants win

46.7%

Fair line (home)

+114

Proj. total

8.04

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.22)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.82)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.04

Over

49.5%

Under

50.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	53.3%	-139	-114
San Francisco Giants	46.7%	+128	+114

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Robbie Ray LHP · San Diego Padres	5.1	4.6	5.0	2.2	2.3
Anthony Molina RHP · San Francisco Giants	2.9	1.8	3.1	1.0	1.2

Strikeout ladder

Robbie Ray4+ 71%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Anthony Molina4+ 10%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.836	.222	.021	.151	.487	.710	.285	.363	.451	.814
Jake Cronenworth	4.7	.705	.185	.015	.072	.498	.777	.236	.329	.340	.669
Manny Machado	4.6	.742	.199	.003	.143	.431	.764	.261	.334	.414	.747
Luis Campusano	4.5	.713	.172	.008	.113	.444	.756	.250	.330	.382	.712
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.711	.198	.045	.131	.302	.774	.267	.321	.434	.755
Xander Bogaerts	4.3	.773	.182	.004	.072	.426	.599	.269	.346	.374	.720
Samad Taylor	4.2	.709	.126	.043	.054	.348	.900	.245	.312	.343	.655
Dustin Harris	4.1	.680	.147	.029	.068	.308	.700	.248	.313	.358	.671
Freddy Fermin	4.0	.668	.157	.004	.062	.291	.641	.245	.307	.342	.648

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonah Cox	4.6	.782	.131	.071	.082	.307	1.190	.252	.307	.375	.682
Rafael Devers	4.5	.523	.165	.006	.209	.634	1.141	.239	.352	.452	.805
Bryce Eldridge	4.3	.573	.168	.004	.160	.550	1.254	.240	.341	.414	.755
Osleivis Basabe	4.3	.675	.172	.013	.087	.285	.745	.241	.299	.358	.658
Turner Hill	4.1	.701	.171	.035	.047	.430	.600	.260	.344	.365	.709
Shay Whitcomb	4.0	.518	.134	.010	.142	.289	1.147	.216	.278	.372	.649
Jung Hoo Lee	3.9	.697	.169	.030	.063	.315	.463	.268	.334	.385	.719
Andrew Knizner	3.8	.521	.132	.006	.093	.368	.833	.222	.308	.347	.655
Christian Koss	3.7	.567	.148	.009	.075	.204	.874	.232	.282	.345	.627

Data notes: home starter Anthony Molina: only 44 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Anthony Molina: only 30 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections