St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Andre Pallante vs Blade Tidwell · 84°F

3.1% edge · San Francisco Giants

St. Louis Cardinals win

47.8%

San Francisco Giants win

52.2%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

8.54

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.27)San Francisco Giants (mean 4.27)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.54

Over

46.4%

Under

53.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	47.8%	-108	+109
San Francisco Giants	52.2%	-100	-109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andre Pallante RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.1	3.7	6.0	1.8	2.4
Blade Tidwell RHP · San Francisco Giants	2.9	2.2	2.9	1.2	1.2

Strikeout ladder

Andre Pallante4+ 52%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Blade Tidwell4+ 17%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bryan Torres	4.8	.909	.177	.038	.052	.533	.749	.275	.360	.371	.731
Iván Herrera	4.7	.797	.180	.013	.111	.559	.738	.272	.376	.404	.780
Alec Burleson	4.6	.807	.205	.012	.146	.402	.590	.280	.349	.440	.789
Leo Bernal	4.5	.698	.168	.019	.095	.364	.840	.239	.305	.358	.663
Joshua Báez	4.4	.590	.183	.023	.159	.302	1.137	.237	.300	.412	.711
Nolan Gorman	4.3	.506	.130	.007	.148	.494	1.288	.209	.304	.365	.669
Thomas Saggese	4.2	.699	.176	.016	.084	.294	.884	.253	.313	.373	.686
Masyn Winn	4.1	.700	.183	.018	.067	.347	.661	.263	.333	.377	.710
Nathan Church	4.0	.722	.145	.026	.076	.246	.549	.263	.316	.379	.695

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.7	.775	.213	.036	.097	.431	.678	.269	.347	.408	.755
Turner Hill	4.5	.914	.226	.047	.042	.394	.453	.300	.369	.409	.778
Bryce Eldridge	4.4	.735	.207	.005	.137	.492	1.014	.277	.361	.437	.798
Jonah Cox	4.3	.870	.150	.089	.064	.258	.872	.290	.338	.419	.757
Jung Hoo Lee	4.2	.857	.225	.045	.051	.281	.342	.301	.354	.421	.776
Shay Whitcomb	4.1	.672	.167	.011	.111	.263	.928	.251	.305	.387	.693
Drew Cavanaugh	4.0	.672	.180	.007	.062	.396	.958	.259	.343	.365	.709
Grant McCray	3.9	.599	.159	.033	.066	.342	.947	.242	.314	.362	.677
Christian Koss	3.8	.705	.177	.013	.053	.188	.698	.267	.312	.369	.681

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections