San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Nick Pivetta vs Logan Webb · 64°F

0.2% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres win

56.4%

San Francisco Giants win

43.6%

Fair line (home)

+130

Proj. total

7.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 3.92)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.18)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.1

Over

39.3%

Under

60.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	56.4%	-137	-130
San Francisco Giants	43.6%	+126	+130

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nick Pivetta RHP · San Diego Padres	4.0	4.3	3.5	1.1	1.3
Logan Webb RHP · San Francisco Giants	5.7	4.5	5.8	1.6	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Nick Pivetta4+ 64%6+ 25%8+ 5%

Logan Webb4+ 67%6+ 29%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.847	.228	.018	.134	.432	.785	.284	.355	.439	.794
Dustin Harris	4.7	.802	.178	.036	.065	.313	.879	.251	.308	.354	.662
Manny Machado	4.5	.751	.200	.003	.128	.371	.805	.260	.323	.401	.724
Luis Campusano	4.5	.733	.182	.006	.100	.377	.837	.253	.322	.375	.696
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.715	.195	.043	.105	.249	.852	.260	.307	.407	.715
Xander Bogaerts	4.2	.776	.180	.005	.061	.363	.660	.266	.334	.364	.698
Jake Cronenworth	4.1	.628	.173	.014	.060	.373	.752	.237	.318	.341	.659
Samad Taylor	4.0	.686	.124	.040	.048	.282	.941	.242	.300	.335	.636
Ethan Salas	3.9	.620	.158	.016	.047	.262	.677	.232	.289	.324	.613

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.4	.576	.165	.028	.113	.378	.974	.220	.297	.360	.657
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.761	.188	.032	.068	.293	.573	.262	.318	.376	.695
Bryce Eldridge	4.2	.555	.151	.003	.161	.446	1.345	.231	.316	.400	.716
Jonah Cox	4.1	.678	.115	.061	.069	.226	1.192	.237	.283	.351	.634
Scott Bandura	4.0	.620	.162	.020	.066	.308	1.046	.234	.298	.342	.640
Shay Whitcomb	3.9	.490	.130	.007	.129	.230	1.208	.206	.258	.351	.609
Andrew Knizner	3.8	.516	.128	.007	.084	.294	.946	.212	.283	.326	.609
Brett Harris	3.7	.494	.111	.011	.071	.323	.969	.208	.288	.313	.600
Christian Koss	3.6	.543	.140	.008	.066	.161	.928	.225	.269	.330	.598

Data notes: away starter Nick Pivetta: only 47 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Nick Pivetta: only 36 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections