San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Michael King vs Cesar Perdomo · 61°F

7.1% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres win

55.3%

San Francisco Giants win

44.7%

Fair line (home)

+124

Proj. total

7.86

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.25)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.61)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.86

Over

39.9%

Under

52.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	55.3%	-176	-124
San Francisco Giants	44.7%	+161	+124

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael King RHP · San Diego Padres	5.4	5.0	5.1	2.0	2.1
Cesar Perdomo LHP · San Francisco Giants	4.0	2.6	4.2	1.5	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Michael King4+ 75%6+ 39%8+ 13%

Cesar Perdomo4+ 26%6+ 4%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.824	.216	.019	.157	.495	.693	.283	.363	.453	.816
Dustin Harris	4.7	.778	.176	.039	.080	.372	.772	.249	.315	.364	.679
Manny Machado	4.6	.736	.195	.003	.149	.434	.750	.260	.333	.416	.748
Luis Campusano	4.5	.700	.180	.007	.115	.462	.733	.250	.333	.385	.718
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.695	.192	.044	.128	.312	.767	.261	.318	.424	.742
Austin Hays	4.3	.658	.178	.028	.102	.278	.878	.243	.299	.380	.678
Xander Bogaerts	4.2	.729	.180	.004	.071	.414	.569	.264	.341	.371	.712
Jake Cronenworth	4.1	.592	.159	.011	.065	.436	.688	.232	.326	.337	.663
Samad Taylor	4.0	.665	.118	.042	.051	.328	.835	.243	.312	.342	.654

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.5	.632	.174	.026	.100	.417	.893	.230	.313	.359	.672
Rafael Devers	4.4	.547	.179	.006	.176	.570	1.167	.237	.341	.424	.765
Bryce Eldridge	4.3	.583	.162	.005	.143	.488	1.263	.234	.325	.391	.717
Jonah Cox	4.2	.724	.118	.070	.065	.248	1.106	.247	.298	.362	.660
Turner Hill	4.1	.707	.169	.032	.047	.376	.595	.258	.334	.359	.693
Jung Hoo Lee	4.0	.717	.190	.033	.057	.285	.475	.269	.330	.384	.714
Shay Whitcomb	3.9	.518	.138	.009	.121	.246	1.108	.216	.273	.359	.632
Drew Cavanaugh	3.8	.527	.135	.005	.064	.359	1.150	.216	.303	.316	.619
Christian Koss	3.7	.574	.150	.011	.063	.182	.868	.232	.279	.336	.616

Data notes: home starter Cesar Perdomo: only 14 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Cesar Perdomo: only 21 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections