Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

September 21, 2026 · Zebby Matthews vs Blade Tidwell · 59°F

2.0% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

55.1%

San Francisco Giants win

44.9%

Fair line (home)

+123

Proj. total

7.48

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.11)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.37)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.48

Over

35.7%

Under

56.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	55.1%	-118	-123
San Francisco Giants	44.9%	+109	+123

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Zebby Matthews RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.6	5.0	5.5	1.3	2.0
Blade Tidwell RHP · San Francisco Giants	3.2	2.4	3.0	1.5	1.3

Strikeout ladder

Zebby Matthews4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Blade Tidwell4+ 22%6+ 3%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Walker Jenkins	4.8	.746	.203	.032	.096	.517	.865	.253	.341	.383	.724
Luke Keaschall	4.7	.828	.215	.011	.064	.504	.613	.273	.368	.378	.747
Brooks Lee	4.6	.747	.170	.021	.109	.317	.654	.246	.304	.372	.676
Kody Clemens	4.5	.584	.161	.044	.144	.361	.886	.228	.299	.395	.694
Ryan Jeffers	4.4	.617	.189	.012	.117	.519	.721	.247	.349	.395	.744
Alan Roden	4.3	.690	.184	.015	.075	.441	.650	.255	.344	.372	.716
Aaron Sabato	4.2	.534	.179	.011	.106	.303	1.102	.216	.282	.351	.633
Emmanuel Rodriguez	4.1	.533	.131	.032	.090	.598	1.157	.230	.353	.366	.719
Ryan Kreidler	4.0	.504	.148	.025	.070	.401	.994	.213	.301	.329	.631

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.5	.659	.183	.034	.115	.348	.808	.243	.312	.390	.701
Jonah Cox	4.4	.803	.139	.083	.063	.214	1.090	.263	.303	.382	.685
Bo Davidson	4.3	.696	.173	.025	.119	.255	1.008	.254	.302	.399	.701
Marcelo Mayer	4.2	.656	.197	.013	.093	.237	.911	.245	.293	.374	.666
Brett Harris	4.1	.616	.149	.010	.071	.303	.900	.228	.298	.332	.629
Drew Cavanaugh	4.0	.581	.155	.007	.070	.338	1.152	.228	.303	.334	.637
Osleivis Basabe	3.9	.652	.170	.011	.070	.195	.638	.249	.293	.360	.653
Scott Bandura	3.7	.629	.160	.026	.054	.263	.814	.254	.313	.364	.677
Christian Koss	3.6	.609	.153	.011	.059	.154	.790	.244	.283	.347	.630

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections