Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Connor Prielipp vs Cesar Perdomo · 69°F

2.7% edge · San Francisco Giants

Minnesota Twins win

56.1%

San Francisco Giants win

43.9%

Fair line (home)

+128

Proj. total

7.88

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.35)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.53)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.88

Over

40.1%

Under

51.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	56.1%	-150	-128
San Francisco Giants	43.9%	+138	+128

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Connor Prielipp LHP · Minnesota Twins	5.2	5.1	5.0	1.5	1.9
Cesar Perdomo LHP · San Francisco Giants	4.7	3.1	4.8	1.9	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Connor Prielipp4+ 77%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Cesar Perdomo4+ 37%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.8	.887	.224	.013	.082	.483	.558	.283	.370	.400	.770
Austin Martin	4.7	.802	.218	.013	.038	.571	.653	.260	.359	.347	.706
Josh Bell	4.6	.760	.179	.011	.128	.421	.694	.258	.332	.398	.729
Ryan Jeffers	4.5	.664	.205	.015	.141	.512	.675	.260	.354	.427	.781
Brooks Lee	4.4	.749	.171	.016	.118	.271	.548	.256	.307	.392	.699
Royce Lewis	4.3	.649	.190	.008	.143	.352	.775	.252	.318	.414	.731
Emmanuel Rodriguez	4.2	.551	.143	.033	.112	.579	1.106	.234	.348	.387	.734
Aaron Sabato	4.1	.533	.182	.008	.124	.295	.975	.226	.289	.378	.667
Ben Ross	4.0	.533	.176	.015	.080	.331	.922	.223	.294	.348	.642

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonah Cox	4.5	.813	.139	.080	.060	.274	1.228	.259	.310	.373	.682
Turner Hill	4.4	.793	.192	.044	.044	.392	.647	.270	.344	.374	.718
Victor Bericoto	4.3	.738	.159	.019	.108	.240	1.048	.253	.299	.381	.680
Bo Davidson	4.2	.691	.168	.021	.111	.304	1.053	.256	.315	.395	.710
Andrew Knizner	4.1	.624	.164	.010	.082	.323	.870	.237	.311	.353	.663
Brett Harris	4.0	.586	.152	.010	.071	.361	.932	.230	.313	.338	.651
Marcelo Mayer	3.9	.596	.180	.011	.083	.271	.899	.243	.301	.368	.670
Shay Whitcomb	3.8	.537	.135	.010	.113	.233	1.059	.226	.281	.367	.648
Christian Koss	3.6	.606	.160	.010	.060	.179	.852	.245	.292	.350	.642

Data notes: home starter Cesar Perdomo: only 30 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Cesar Perdomo: only 53 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections