Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Tarik Skubal vs Yunior Marte · 63°F

0.1% edge · Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers win

73.7%

San Francisco Giants win

26.3%

Fair line (home)

+280

Proj. total

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.33)San Francisco Giants (mean 2.67)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

Over

48.5%

Under

51.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	73.7%	-306	-280
San Francisco Giants	26.3%	+270	+280

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tarik Skubal LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	6.0	7.5	4.7	1.0	1.5
Yunior Marte RHP · San Francisco Giants	4.6	2.8	5.0	2.4	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Tarik Skubal4+ 96%6+ 79%8+ 49%

Yunior Marte4+ 31%6+ 6%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	5.0	.692	.199	.040	.249	.773	.945	.282	.398	.526	.924
Mookie Betts	4.9	.784	.231	.015	.147	.548	.397	.273	.359	.436	.795
Freddie Freeman	4.8	.863	.236	.012	.125	.542	.653	.295	.381	.447	.828
Will Smith	4.7	.724	.189	.011	.145	.596	.656	.266	.369	.427	.796
Kyle Tucker	4.6	.681	.172	.023	.142	.657	.548	.262	.373	.429	.801
Teoscar Hernández	4.5	.724	.189	.016	.154	.374	.956	.268	.335	.437	.771
Max Muncy	4.3	.525	.150	.012	.162	.658	.850	.234	.358	.416	.774
Andy Pages	4.2	.673	.191	.014	.136	.321	.663	.263	.327	.426	.753
Enrique Hernández	4.1	.606	.163	.010	.092	.321	.786	.231	.294	.352	.646

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonah Cox	4.4	.686	.111	.069	.065	.205	1.447	.226	.269	.334	.603
Brett Harris	4.3	.560	.127	.009	.080	.300	1.262	.200	.269	.299	.568
Victor Bericoto	4.2	.596	.137	.018	.114	.189	1.271	.219	.258	.349	.607
Bo Davidson	4.1	.585	.134	.020	.107	.243	1.253	.223	.274	.353	.627
Andrew Knizner	4.0	.523	.141	.007	.085	.254	1.077	.207	.270	.320	.590
Marcelo Mayer	3.9	.507	.163	.012	.085	.237	1.120	.213	.267	.336	.603
Shay Whitcomb	3.7	.453	.115	.007	.108	.178	1.268	.194	.239	.323	.562
Scott Bandura	3.6	.536	.128	.024	.044	.234	1.056	.220	.277	.312	.589
Christian Koss	3.5	.504	.125	.008	.059	.145	1.016	.212	.254	.308	.562

Data notes: home starter Yunior Marte: only 41 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Yunior Marte: only 42 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections