Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

July 3, 2026 · Dylan Cease vs Luis Castillo · 68°F

2.1% edge · Seattle Mariners

Toronto Blue Jays win

52.8%

Seattle Mariners win

47.2%

Fair line (home)

+112

Proj. total

7.44

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 3.93)Seattle Mariners (mean 3.51)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.44

Over

43.6%

Under

44.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	52.8%	-127	-112
Seattle Mariners	47.2%	+117	+112

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.7	.838	.206	.016	.082	.345	.795	.263	.324	.375	.698
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.6	.752	.203	.004	.175	.518	.632	.280	.368	.462	.830
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.584	.169	.006	.171	.364	1.090	.227	.297	.396	.693
Daulton Varsho	4.4	.533	.164	.032	.152	.344	1.093	.219	.287	.389	.676
Alejandro Kirk	4.3	.712	.157	.007	.120	.440	.563	.261	.344	.400	.744
Yohendrick Piñango	4.2	.600	.163	.009	.089	.318	1.037	.224	.287	.340	.627
Ernie Clement	4.1	.754	.191	.018	.073	.165	.447	.266	.301	.380	.681
Sean Keys	4.0	.447	.140	.005	.103	.388	1.184	.197	.287	.327	.614
Andrés Giménez	3.9	.605	.143	.013	.077	.195	.734	.234	.291	.346	.637

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.5	.613	.153	.005	.084	.623	1.100	.221	.335	.329	.664
Randy Arozarena	4.4	.550	.159	.009	.112	.465	1.369	.216	.319	.350	.668
Dominic Canzone	4.3	.587	.172	.005	.160	.361	1.199	.235	.304	.404	.708
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.402	.112	.004	.191	.527	1.401	.194	.301	.384	.684
Josh Naylor	4.1	.643	.155	.004	.124	.385	.800	.251	.327	.396	.723
Luke Raley	4.0	.460	.122	.013	.136	.304	1.462	.204	.286	.358	.644
Cole Young	3.9	.566	.144	.019	.058	.395	.880	.229	.317	.333	.650
Victor Robles	3.8	.556	.155	.011	.040	.282	1.026	.222	.294	.309	.603
Colt Emerson	3.6	.465	.128	.013	.070	.332	1.131	.207	.289	.318	.607

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections