Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

July 4, 2026 · Shane Bieber vs Logan Gilbert · 65°F

6.2% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

45.6%

Seattle Mariners win

54.4%

Fair line (home)

-120

Proj. total

7.37

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 3.57)Seattle Mariners (mean 3.80)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.37

Over

42.8%

Under

57.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	45.6%	+149	+120
Seattle Mariners	54.4%	-162	-120

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.6	.813	.201	.017	.077	.309	.839	.259	.315	.367	.682
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.5	.750	.197	.004	.178	.465	.698	.281	.362	.466	.827
Kazuma Okamoto	4.4	.563	.161	.004	.172	.320	1.146	.221	.286	.390	.676
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.502	.158	.031	.154	.314	1.148	.213	.276	.384	.661
Ernie Clement	4.2	.763	.202	.017	.077	.156	.494	.263	.295	.379	.673
Yohendrick Piñango	4.1	.572	.161	.007	.089	.277	1.096	.218	.276	.334	.610
Sean Keys	4.0	.445	.129	.005	.112	.354	1.265	.193	.276	.325	.601
Brandon Valenzuela	3.9	.490	.118	.005	.087	.270	1.121	.196	.258	.304	.562
Andrés Giménez	3.8	.568	.147	.014	.070	.180	.773	.229	.283	.338	.621

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.5	.705	.178	.005	.090	.484	.893	.245	.332	.360	.692
Randy Arozarena	4.4	.635	.189	.010	.122	.374	1.127	.244	.326	.390	.716
Dominic Canzone	4.3	.670	.192	.004	.160	.288	.985	.257	.312	.428	.740
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.475	.133	.004	.212	.417	1.191	.220	.304	.427	.730
Josh Naylor	4.1	.702	.174	.005	.128	.297	.633	.268	.326	.419	.745
Luke Raley	4.0	.541	.139	.013	.148	.250	1.226	.231	.300	.399	.699
Cole Young	3.9	.638	.163	.021	.058	.298	.716	.250	.317	.357	.674
Victor Robles	3.8	.623	.172	.012	.044	.215	.860	.244	.300	.339	.639
Colt Emerson	3.6	.518	.141	.015	.077	.266	.960	.227	.294	.348	.642

Data notes: away starter Shane Bieber: only 19 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Shane Bieber: only 24 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections