Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

July 5, 2026 · Trey Yesavage vs Emerson Hancock · 70°F

3.6% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

51.3%

Seattle Mariners win

48.7%

Fair line (home)

+105

Proj. total

8.14

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.20)Seattle Mariners (mean 3.94)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.14

Over

45.7%

Under

54.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	51.3%	+106	-105
Seattle Mariners	48.7%	-114	+105

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.8	.872	.222	.018	.079	.352	.719	.272	.333	.385	.718
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.788	.212	.004	.188	.525	.590	.291	.377	.482	.859
Kazuma Okamoto	4.6	.613	.170	.006	.196	.369	1.011	.237	.308	.422	.730
Alejandro Kirk	4.5	.745	.165	.006	.121	.440	.557	.261	.342	.397	.739
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.535	.160	.031	.154	.352	1.002	.223	.293	.396	.689
Ernie Clement	4.2	.794	.212	.018	.077	.174	.411	.273	.308	.392	.700
Sean Keys	4.1	.483	.153	.005	.112	.401	1.153	.206	.297	.342	.639
Luis Urías	4.0	.584	.150	.015	.086	.369	.702	.234	.322	.358	.679
Yohendrick Piñango	3.9	.559	.168	.008	.089	.298	.892	.230	.295	.356	.652

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.6	.663	.161	.005	.094	.675	.979	.237	.355	.353	.709
Randy Arozarena	4.5	.587	.181	.008	.124	.523	1.232	.233	.343	.380	.723
Cal Raleigh	4.4	.433	.131	.002	.229	.603	1.308	.212	.327	.431	.758
Josh Naylor	4.3	.689	.172	.004	.137	.427	.720	.262	.341	.417	.758
Luke Raley	4.2	.517	.131	.013	.144	.335	1.371	.216	.301	.374	.675
Cole Young	4.1	.619	.153	.020	.069	.439	.812	.240	.332	.351	.683
Mitch Garver	4.0	.425	.110	.015	.124	.530	1.212	.198	.312	.348	.660
Colt Emerson	3.9	.502	.143	.015	.084	.381	1.072	.217	.306	.342	.647
Victor Robles	3.7	.580	.165	.012	.045	.299	.892	.238	.314	.334	.649

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections