San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

July 17, 2026 · Landen Roupp vs Bryce Miller · 70°F

8.8% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

45.9%

Seattle Mariners win

54.1%

Fair line (home)

-118

Proj. total

7.78

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.80)Seattle Mariners (mean 3.97)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.78

Over

46.5%

Under

41.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	45.9%	+164	+118
Seattle Mariners	54.1%	-179	-118

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Arraez	4.7	1.035	.196	.038	.045	.228	.226	.295	.334	.387	.721
Bryce Eldridge	4.6	.591	.181	.004	.144	.422	1.415	.222	.299	.373	.671
Casey Schmitt	4.5	.687	.178	.011	.161	.218	.985	.246	.291	.409	.700
Rafael Devers	4.4	.528	.178	.009	.184	.458	1.194	.232	.317	.424	.741
Heliot Ramos	4.3	.633	.157	.024	.136	.293	1.118	.242	.302	.398	.700
Jung Hoo Lee	4.2	.748	.188	.040	.064	.254	.491	.268	.318	.387	.704
Willy Adames	4.1	.489	.145	.011	.143	.377	1.093	.216	.293	.379	.673
Drew Gilbert	3.9	.527	.148	.022	.086	.317	.811	.219	.293	.346	.638
Drew Cavanaugh	3.8	.496	.126	.006	.066	.338	1.212	.202	.284	.301	.585

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.6	.699	.163	.005	.077	.660	.928	.241	.355	.344	.699
Randy Arozarena	4.5	.608	.187	.009	.108	.541	1.137	.237	.350	.375	.725
Dominic Canzone	4.4	.642	.172	.010	.151	.410	1.007	.246	.322	.409	.731
Cal Raleigh	4.3	.453	.128	.003	.181	.594	1.222	.209	.326	.394	.721
Josh Naylor	4.2	.713	.177	.004	.115	.410	.599	.270	.347	.411	.758
Cole Young	4.1	.644	.172	.017	.071	.424	.727	.251	.338	.366	.705
Luke Raley	4.0	.505	.136	.013	.121	.329	1.222	.219	.306	.368	.674
Victor Robles	3.9	.628	.171	.011	.036	.330	.828	.244	.323	.331	.654
Colt Emerson	3.8	.512	.135	.013	.070	.367	1.040	.219	.305	.330	.636

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections