Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

July 21, 2026 · Chase Burns vs Luis Castillo · 84°F

0.8% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

48.5%

Seattle Mariners win

51.5%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

8.27

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.17)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.10)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.27

Over

50.9%

Under

49.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	48.5%	+106	+106
Seattle Mariners	51.5%	-114	-106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.669	.183	.041	.180	.411	1.302	.252	.322	.440	.763
Sal Stewart	4.6	.664	.214	.003	.194	.392	.950	.257	.325	.449	.774
JJ Bleday	4.5	.530	.179	.017	.206	.489	1.016	.234	.322	.443	.765
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.492	.154	.002	.236	.342	1.399	.222	.293	.439	.732
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.601	.143	.011	.146	.461	1.114	.237	.323	.396	.719
Noelvi Marte	4.2	.647	.160	.016	.155	.233	.936	.249	.297	.416	.713
Jose Trevino	4.1	.653	.155	.004	.103	.221	.667	.239	.285	.363	.648
TJ Friedl	4.0	.572	.120	.015	.098	.353	.807	.228	.313	.355	.667
Edwin Arroyo	3.8	.624	.131	.036	.064	.191	.820	.237	.284	.347	.631

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cole Young	4.5	.672	.171	.018	.124	.437	.957	.244	.325	.387	.711
Randy Arozarena	4.4	.570	.178	.009	.162	.468	1.267	.238	.336	.414	.750
Dominic Canzone	4.3	.576	.161	.010	.228	.365	1.110	.248	.316	.468	.785
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.403	.114	.003	.270	.528	1.338	.216	.320	.470	.790
Josh Naylor	4.1	.649	.165	.004	.173	.372	.710	.267	.338	.453	.791
Luke Raley	4.0	.474	.126	.011	.189	.313	1.383	.222	.301	.420	.721
Victor Robles	3.9	.604	.161	.013	.056	.297	.984	.236	.306	.336	.642
Colt Emerson	3.8	.472	.127	.015	.113	.340	1.177	.214	.293	.360	.653
Weston Wilson	3.6	.419	.104	.009	.123	.362	1.216	.201	.285	.351	.637

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections