San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

July 19, 2026 · Robbie Ray vs Logan Gilbert · 71°F

5.1% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

40.6%

Seattle Mariners win

59.4%

Fair line (home)

-146

Proj. total

7.73

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.56)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.17)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.73

Over

46.9%

Under

41.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	40.6%	+176	+146
Seattle Mariners	59.4%	-194	-146

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.017	.190	.038	.044	.214	.253	.294	.332	.385	.716
Bryce Eldridge	4.5	.595	.170	.004	.155	.357	1.487	.224	.291	.379	.670
Casey Schmitt	4.4	.631	.162	.013	.151	.190	1.091	.229	.272	.383	.655
Rafael Devers	4.3	.517	.170	.008	.184	.415	1.274	.228	.308	.418	.726
Heliot Ramos	4.2	.615	.152	.024	.141	.263	1.186	.239	.295	.398	.693
Jung Hoo Lee	4.1	.707	.196	.041	.063	.232	.541	.262	.309	.383	.692
Willy Adames	4.0	.472	.137	.010	.145	.331	1.169	.210	.280	.372	.652
Grant McCray	3.9	.474	.132	.022	.071	.268	1.304	.195	.256	.303	.559
Drew Cavanaugh	3.8	.471	.124	.005	.065	.304	1.254	.196	.274	.293	.567

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.6	.659	.162	.006	.099	.677	.905	.239	.357	.360	.718
Julio Rodríguez	4.5	.702	.173	.013	.204	.394	.955	.269	.340	.469	.809
Cole Young	4.4	.678	.163	.017	.096	.468	.775	.247	.337	.373	.710
Randy Arozarena	4.3	.559	.173	.007	.130	.508	1.073	.238	.347	.396	.744
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.420	.119	.002	.221	.537	1.192	.212	.321	.431	.752
Josh Naylor	4.1	.658	.155	.004	.136	.402	.588	.263	.342	.420	.762
Mitch Garver	4.0	.434	.105	.015	.134	.558	1.132	.205	.325	.365	.690
Weston Wilson	3.8	.473	.118	.010	.109	.415	1.115	.209	.300	.346	.645
Colt Emerson	3.7	.492	.124	.015	.088	.373	1.027	.218	.307	.345	.651

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections