Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

July 20, 2026 · Andrew Abbott vs George Kirby · 78°F

5.1% edge · Seattle Mariners

Cincinnati Reds win

37.7%

Seattle Mariners win

62.3%

Fair line (home)

-165

Proj. total

8.6

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 3.83)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.77)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.6

Over

54.9%

Under

45.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	37.7%	+129	+165
Seattle Mariners	62.3%	-140	-165

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.684	.195	.043	.172	.333	1.293	.256	.314	.442	.756
Sal Stewart	4.5	.669	.210	.003	.181	.320	.960	.254	.313	.435	.748
JJ Bleday	4.4	.546	.184	.016	.183	.394	1.054	.231	.304	.422	.726
Spencer Steer	4.3	.584	.174	.013	.149	.332	.973	.233	.302	.398	.700
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.486	.143	.003	.214	.275	1.347	.217	.279	.421	.699
Tyler Stephenson	4.1	.592	.159	.004	.114	.312	1.153	.231	.295	.366	.661
Dane Myers	4.0	.631	.146	.006	.098	.228	1.079	.236	.289	.358	.647
Edwin Arroyo	3.9	.653	.135	.034	.059	.157	.826	.239	.279	.341	.620
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.8	.621	.130	.021	.072	.190	.755	.238	.283	.348	.631

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.6	.689	.164	.004	.134	.617	.875	.250	.356	.395	.751
Julio Rodríguez	4.5	.734	.173	.011	.256	.349	.903	.285	.347	.519	.866
Dominic Canzone	4.4	.640	.176	.010	.242	.371	.946	.267	.333	.498	.831
Randy Arozarena	4.3	.587	.175	.007	.173	.468	1.034	.253	.352	.444	.797
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.432	.125	.002	.285	.505	1.134	.232	.331	.501	.832
Josh Naylor	4.1	.670	.164	.003	.189	.369	.573	.279	.349	.479	.828
Cole Young	4.0	.619	.159	.017	.107	.381	.676	.255	.334	.400	.735
Victor Robles	3.9	.632	.160	.011	.063	.301	.807	.247	.317	.353	.670
Buddy Kennedy	3.7	.535	.148	.009	.098	.404	.764	.240	.331	.380	.712

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections