Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

July 31, 2026 · Zebby Matthews vs Bryce Miller · 78°F

2.2% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

42.3%

Seattle Mariners win

57.7%

Fair line (home)

-136

Proj. total

8.41

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 3.98)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.44)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.41

Over

53.5%

Under

46.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	42.3%	+144	+136
Seattle Mariners	57.7%	-157	-136

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.7	.672	.183	.013	.147	.460	1.101	.241	.321	.395	.716
Ryan Jeffers	4.6	.623	.183	.012	.173	.448	.991	.244	.329	.422	.751
Kody Clemens	4.5	.550	.169	.032	.201	.282	1.116	.229	.284	.430	.714
Josh Bell	4.4	.638	.137	.013	.154	.382	.946	.238	.310	.396	.706
Royce Lewis	4.3	.569	.162	.003	.187	.305	1.040	.234	.292	.418	.711
Alan Roden	4.2	.625	.165	.013	.096	.365	.877	.241	.318	.369	.687
Brooks Lee	4.0	.621	.138	.019	.128	.248	.738	.240	.291	.388	.679
Luke Keaschall	3.9	.647	.160	.011	.065	.353	.681	.251	.331	.358	.689
Tristan Gray	3.8	.472	.136	.014	.113	.222	1.189	.206	.258	.346	.604

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cole Young	4.5	.783	.205	.023	.123	.338	.742	.273	.336	.422	.758
Randy Arozarena	4.4	.656	.196	.009	.161	.386	1.048	.259	.342	.436	.779
Dominic Canzone	4.3	.685	.183	.011	.222	.283	.895	.273	.325	.489	.814
Julio Rodríguez	4.2	.736	.174	.011	.218	.261	.843	.290	.341	.507	.848
Josh Naylor	4.1	.717	.177	.003	.166	.297	.559	.280	.337	.459	.796
Cal Raleigh	4.0	.438	.124	.003	.258	.434	1.090	.231	.320	.485	.805
Weston Wilson	3.9	.531	.136	.010	.128	.316	1.101	.226	.293	.377	.670
Colt Emerson	3.8	.536	.143	.015	.109	.269	1.009	.230	.294	.374	.668
Victor Robles	3.7	.623	.164	.011	.054	.220	.748	.252	.309	.355	.664

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections