Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

July 22, 2026 · Brady Singer vs Emerson Hancock · 85°F

0.7% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

41.4%

Seattle Mariners win

58.6%

Fair line (home)

-141

Proj. total

9.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.35)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.97)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.32

Over

53.5%

Under

38.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	41.4%	+141	+141
Seattle Mariners	58.6%	-153	-141

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.8	.699	.194	.042	.198	.443	1.237	.263	.337	.466	.804
Sal Stewart	4.7	.694	.208	.002	.198	.423	.897	.262	.335	.453	.788
JJ Bleday	4.6	.547	.178	.015	.206	.524	.982	.236	.328	.442	.770
Spencer Steer	4.5	.605	.179	.012	.161	.410	.929	.240	.321	.413	.734
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.631	.151	.011	.148	.485	1.051	.246	.335	.407	.742
Tyler Stephenson	4.2	.584	.161	.006	.134	.399	1.101	.233	.312	.384	.697
Dane Myers	4.1	.668	.140	.006	.113	.311	1.035	.246	.311	.376	.687
Edwin Arroyo	4.0	.660	.147	.039	.063	.202	.819	.241	.289	.351	.640
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.9	.644	.135	.022	.082	.253	.730	.244	.298	.361	.659

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cole Young	4.6	.762	.182	.021	.133	.431	.777	.266	.347	.418	.765
Julio Rodríguez	4.5	.760	.176	.011	.267	.335	.895	.295	.358	.538	.896
Dominic Canzone	4.4	.655	.175	.009	.247	.363	.938	.271	.338	.505	.843
Randy Arozarena	4.3	.588	.179	.009	.169	.450	1.038	.255	.359	.445	.804
Josh Naylor	4.2	.704	.180	.004	.187	.365	.583	.283	.353	.480	.833
Cal Raleigh	4.1	.431	.126	.002	.273	.513	1.118	.234	.338	.501	.840
Luke Raley	4.0	.522	.139	.013	.198	.285	1.182	.244	.325	.457	.782
Weston Wilson	3.9	.491	.126	.009	.139	.386	1.104	.221	.306	.383	.688
Colt Emerson	3.8	.517	.134	.015	.115	.333	1.019	.232	.313	.383	.696

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections