Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

August 1, 2026 · Connor Prielipp vs Logan Gilbert · 68°F

1.3% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

40.9%

Seattle Mariners win

59.1%

Fair line (home)

-145

Proj. total

7.68

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 3.52)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.16)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.68

Over

46.0%

Under

42.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	40.9%	+148	+145
Seattle Mariners	59.1%	-161	-145

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.7	.654	.177	.012	.135	.402	1.194	.233	.305	.377	.683
Ryan Jeffers	4.5	.600	.179	.010	.155	.399	1.083	.233	.314	.397	.711
Kody Clemens	4.4	.526	.164	.034	.173	.258	1.214	.217	.270	.399	.669
Royce Lewis	4.3	.552	.159	.004	.169	.293	1.161	.221	.278	.390	.668
Brooks Lee	4.2	.631	.140	.020	.122	.240	.830	.231	.280	.370	.650
Luke Keaschall	4.1	.658	.168	.012	.064	.342	.778	.244	.321	.348	.669
Victor Caratini	4.0	.622	.109	.005	.102	.269	.900	.230	.298	.347	.645
Ryan Kreidler	3.9	.446	.119	.018	.078	.328	1.315	.188	.264	.299	.563
Austin Martin	3.8	.588	.151	.007	.034	.377	.794	.233	.320	.313	.633

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cole Young	4.5	.734	.184	.019	.091	.424	.814	.253	.334	.375	.709
Randy Arozarena	4.4	.621	.188	.008	.134	.465	1.098	.248	.350	.405	.755
Dominic Canzone	4.3	.641	.181	.010	.181	.362	.981	.257	.325	.446	.772
Julio Rodríguez	4.2	.703	.167	.010	.179	.329	.897	.276	.341	.464	.805
Cal Raleigh	4.1	.448	.125	.002	.221	.467	1.175	.220	.316	.438	.754
Josh Naylor	4.0	.676	.166	.004	.125	.354	.574	.267	.338	.418	.755
Mitch Garver	3.9	.460	.103	.017	.124	.479	1.127	.208	.314	.358	.672
Weston Wilson	3.8	.472	.122	.009	.104	.371	1.116	.208	.292	.341	.633
Colt Emerson	3.7	.494	.136	.015	.085	.330	1.012	.222	.302	.350	.652

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections