Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

August 4, 2026 · Troy Melton vs Emerson Hancock · 72°F

0.3% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

46.4%

Seattle Mariners win

53.6%

Fair line (home)

-116

Proj. total

8.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.08)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.22)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.3

Over

52.1%

Under

47.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	46.4%	+113	+116
Seattle Mariners	53.6%	-122	-116

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.8	.768	.203	.028	.102	.556	.657	.264	.356	.400	.756
Gleyber Torres	4.7	.746	.163	.004	.117	.535	.799	.252	.343	.380	.723
Dillon Dingler	4.5	.655	.188	.021	.165	.293	1.034	.246	.306	.419	.725
Riley Greene	4.4	.653	.191	.014	.181	.420	1.170	.261	.336	.452	.789
Colt Keith	4.3	.677	.166	.027	.120	.349	.835	.251	.317	.398	.715
Spencer Torkelson	4.2	.465	.169	.005	.162	.441	1.177	.215	.307	.393	.700
Max Clark	4.1	.619	.140	.024	.061	.388	.800	.228	.307	.329	.637
Javier Báez	4.0	.614	.146	.014	.096	.144	.895	.228	.265	.350	.615
Zach McKinstry	3.9	.535	.132	.046	.067	.339	.783	.223	.299	.345	.643

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cole Young	4.6	.733	.184	.022	.107	.364	.797	.252	.320	.384	.704
Randy Arozarena	4.5	.618	.187	.009	.147	.422	1.094	.245	.335	.409	.744
Dominic Canzone	4.3	.633	.170	.010	.188	.318	.953	.250	.310	.438	.747
Julio Rodríguez	4.3	.704	.166	.010	.192	.300	.876	.275	.334	.470	.804
Josh Naylor	4.2	.700	.170	.004	.138	.316	.585	.266	.328	.422	.750
Cal Raleigh	4.0	.434	.119	.003	.211	.463	1.130	.217	.313	.431	.744
Brendan Donovan	3.9	.679	.168	.011	.082	.349	.560	.267	.343	.391	.734
Taylor Ward	3.8	.545	.153	.008	.126	.433	.838	.248	.339	.412	.751
Colt Emerson	3.7	.504	.131	.014	.089	.292	1.011	.220	.292	.347	.639

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections