Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

August 9, 2026 · Ian Seymour vs Emerson Hancock · 71°F

1.1% edge · Seattle Mariners

Tampa Bay Rays win

48.7%

Seattle Mariners win

51.3%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

8.42

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.26)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.16)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.42

Over

53.3%

Under

46.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	48.7%	-103	+105
Seattle Mariners	51.3%	-105	-105

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.857	.197	.011	.155	.455	.730	.284	.360	.443	.803
Jonathan Aranda	4.7	.736	.181	.004	.160	.514	1.134	.263	.355	.426	.781
Chandler Simpson	4.6	1.010	.127	.056	.013	.248	.488	.279	.320	.342	.663
Junior Caminero	4.5	.640	.167	.004	.283	.373	.835	.268	.334	.520	.853
Liam Hicks	4.4	.732	.141	.015	.102	.449	.568	.257	.346	.380	.726
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.3	.590	.171	.015	.117	.333	.967	.228	.294	.369	.663
Cedric Mullins	4.2	.540	.147	.019	.121	.359	.936	.220	.295	.366	.661
Richie Palacios	4.0	.589	.149	.026	.065	.423	.774	.232	.321	.342	.663
Taylor Walls	3.9	.511	.135	.027	.043	.401	.984	.204	.290	.295	.585

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Taylor Ward	4.5	.593	.169	.009	.163	.570	1.056	.238	.340	.409	.749
Cole Young	4.4	.661	.161	.018	.108	.400	.808	.239	.319	.370	.689
Randy Arozarena	4.3	.557	.165	.007	.151	.442	1.116	.235	.336	.403	.739
Dominic Canzone	4.2	.570	.154	.007	.210	.350	.981	.244	.313	.452	.764
Julio Rodríguez	4.1	.612	.157	.011	.200	.311	.916	.261	.327	.468	.794
Josh Naylor	4.0	.632	.159	.003	.157	.342	.622	.261	.331	.436	.767
Cal Raleigh	3.9	.371	.106	.002	.228	.456	1.138	.207	.308	.440	.748
Weston Wilson	3.8	.429	.113	.008	.115	.355	1.171	.196	.277	.335	.612
Colt Emerson	3.7	.460	.120	.013	.097	.303	1.065	.208	.285	.340	.625

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections