Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

August 7, 2026 · Drew Rasmussen vs Logan Gilbert · 78°F

3.6% edge · Seattle Mariners

Tampa Bay Rays win

44.5%

Seattle Mariners win

55.5%

Fair line (home)

-124

Proj. total

8.03

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.86)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.17)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.03

Over

49.3%

Under

39.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	44.5%	+104	+124
Seattle Mariners	55.5%	-112	-124

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.826	.185	.011	.159	.400	.850	.278	.347	.439	.786
Jonathan Aranda	4.6	.672	.164	.005	.155	.427	1.315	.243	.324	.399	.724
Junior Caminero	4.5	.607	.158	.004	.298	.332	1.012	.258	.316	.513	.829
Liam Hicks	4.4	.691	.143	.017	.111	.398	.716	.245	.326	.375	.701
Chandler Simpson	4.3	.915	.117	.060	.015	.213	.564	.272	.311	.342	.653
Jonny DeLuca	4.2	.547	.166	.023	.118	.242	1.020	.219	.272	.364	.636
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.1	.543	.144	.013	.121	.281	1.082	.218	.277	.360	.637
Richie Palacios	3.9	.551	.141	.022	.063	.376	.895	.220	.303	.325	.628
Taylor Walls	3.8	.474	.123	.024	.043	.341	1.111	.192	.269	.279	.548

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Taylor Ward	4.5	.636	.184	.009	.151	.477	1.091	.244	.329	.407	.736
Cole Young	4.4	.715	.176	.022	.101	.338	.826	.252	.319	.382	.702
Randy Arozarena	4.3	.583	.184	.009	.141	.374	1.138	.239	.326	.403	.729
Dominic Canzone	4.2	.620	.172	.010	.196	.285	.983	.255	.311	.455	.766
Julio Rodríguez	4.1	.657	.159	.010	.185	.263	.912	.266	.321	.459	.780
Josh Naylor	4.0	.664	.161	.003	.152	.281	.627	.266	.323	.434	.757
Brendan Donovan	3.9	.675	.168	.011	.088	.326	.599	.269	.342	.398	.740
Cal Raleigh	3.8	.384	.116	.002	.213	.384	1.132	.213	.299	.439	.738
Colt Emerson	3.6	.478	.128	.014	.095	.269	1.070	.214	.282	.347	.628

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections