Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

August 8, 2026 · Griffin Jax vs George Kirby · 76°F

5.2% edge · Seattle Mariners

Tampa Bay Rays win

43.2%

Seattle Mariners win

56.8%

Fair line (home)

-132

Proj. total

8.03

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.79)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.24)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.03

Over

49.3%

Under

38.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	43.2%	+103	+132
Seattle Mariners	56.8%	-111	-132

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.858	.189	.012	.158	.348	.753	.284	.344	.444	.788
Jonathan Aranda	4.6	.718	.185	.005	.147	.386	1.190	.256	.329	.410	.739
Junior Caminero	4.5	.647	.162	.005	.286	.302	.895	.265	.319	.513	.832
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.4	.635	.183	.018	.119	.268	1.032	.235	.287	.376	.663
Chandler Simpson	4.3	.934	.122	.058	.014	.177	.473	.277	.310	.346	.656
Cedric Mullins	4.2	.540	.158	.018	.117	.294	.974	.218	.280	.360	.640
Richie Palacios	4.0	.606	.148	.028	.058	.354	.813	.230	.305	.334	.640
Nick Fortes	3.9	.626	.154	.007	.085	.153	.650	.235	.277	.349	.626
Taylor Walls	3.8	.498	.125	.025	.040	.309	1.014	.198	.268	.282	.550

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Taylor Ward	4.6	.604	.170	.009	.160	.583	1.112	.239	.343	.408	.751
Cole Young	4.5	.671	.168	.020	.109	.408	.859	.243	.322	.377	.699
Randy Arozarena	4.3	.551	.172	.009	.146	.448	1.186	.232	.333	.398	.731
Dominic Canzone	4.3	.573	.159	.009	.198	.357	1.039	.243	.312	.443	.755
Julio Rodríguez	4.1	.630	.153	.011	.193	.314	.973	.261	.326	.460	.786
Josh Naylor	4.0	.635	.149	.003	.149	.356	.669	.257	.329	.422	.751
Brendan Donovan	3.9	.627	.165	.009	.092	.390	.630	.258	.343	.390	.734
Cal Raleigh	3.8	.361	.102	.003	.210	.466	1.160	.205	.309	.428	.737
Colt Emerson	3.7	.458	.128	.012	.095	.320	1.106	.209	.289	.341	.629

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections