Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Matthew Boyd vs Emerson Hancock · 75°F

2.5% edge · Seattle Mariners

Chicago Cubs win

46.9%

Seattle Mariners win

53.1%

Fair line (home)

-113

Proj. total

8.87

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.43)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.44)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.87

Over

49.6%

Under

42.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	46.9%	-102	+113
Seattle Mariners	53.1%	-107	-113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Matthew Boyd LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.3	4.5	5.3	1.8	2.6
Emerson Hancock RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.1	4.2	5.2	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Matthew Boyd4+ 67%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Emerson Hancock4+ 62%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.8	.654	.193	.047	.209	.359	1.216	.251	.318	.459	.777
Seiya Suzuki	4.7	.658	.196	.014	.189	.488	1.173	.253	.336	.442	.778
Michael Busch	4.6	.605	.165	.024	.178	.492	1.065	.241	.333	.426	.759
Alex Bregman	4.5	.670	.178	.007	.140	.451	.676	.250	.335	.404	.739
Ian Happ	4.4	.532	.167	.013	.148	.502	1.174	.224	.321	.390	.710
Nico Hoerner	4.3	.827	.177	.015	.054	.287	.400	.274	.334	.368	.702
Pedro Ramírez	4.2	.755	.162	.030	.077	.258	.794	.265	.318	.382	.700
Michael Conforto	4.0	.500	.146	.007	.134	.415	1.052	.219	.309	.376	.685
Carson Kelly	3.9	.611	.129	.009	.111	.372	.728	.244	.324	.380	.704

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brendan Donovan	4.6	.786	.202	.013	.104	.391	.637	.269	.345	.401	.746
Randy Arozarena	4.5	.615	.188	.008	.160	.432	1.054	.249	.346	.425	.770
Dominic Canzone	4.4	.648	.180	.010	.202	.342	.921	.260	.324	.462	.786
Julio Rodríguez	4.3	.701	.166	.010	.206	.312	.881	.278	.341	.485	.826
Josh Naylor	4.2	.706	.177	.004	.152	.334	.569	.275	.340	.444	.784
Taylor Ward	4.1	.519	.147	.010	.140	.504	.937	.233	.336	.400	.736
Cal Raleigh	4.0	.396	.115	.002	.225	.427	1.108	.213	.309	.441	.750
Cole Young	3.8	.616	.146	.023	.100	.316	.605	.256	.328	.398	.725
Brock Rodden	3.7	.485	.147	.010	.111	.209	1.048	.218	.271	.362	.633

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections