Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · David Peterson vs Kade Anderson · 70°F

7.3% edge · Seattle Mariners

Chicago Cubs win

40.8%

Seattle Mariners win

59.2%

Fair line (home)

-145

Proj. total

7.93

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 3.63)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.30)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.93

Over

48.0%

Under

52.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	40.8%	+104	+145
Seattle Mariners	59.2%	-112	-145

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
David Peterson LHP · Chicago Cubs	4.5	3.9	4.5	2.0	2.0
Kade Anderson LHP · Seattle Mariners	5.3	5.8	4.6	1.4	1.8

Strikeout ladder

David Peterson4+ 55%6+ 19%8+ 3%

Kade Anderson4+ 85%6+ 53%8+ 21%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.586	.170	.046	.179	.328	1.413	.230	.294	.418	.713
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.574	.186	.011	.159	.442	1.358	.229	.309	.397	.705
Alex Bregman	4.4	.640	.166	.009	.126	.435	.815	.239	.323	.381	.704
Michael Busch	4.3	.546	.155	.025	.154	.416	1.212	.228	.313	.401	.714
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.813	.178	.013	.052	.263	.498	.270	.324	.362	.686
Tyrone Taylor	4.1	.547	.172	.015	.102	.196	1.063	.216	.265	.348	.613
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.665	.145	.021	.069	.213	.921	.240	.288	.345	.633
Kevin Alcántara	3.9	.499	.125	.005	.115	.253	1.423	.206	.261	.339	.600
Miguel Amaya	3.8	.492	.137	.007	.090	.258	1.021	.210	.278	.332	.610

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brendan Donovan	4.6	.806	.199	.015	.088	.460	.633	.271	.357	.392	.748
Randy Arozarena	4.5	.641	.182	.008	.133	.497	1.068	.248	.352	.401	.753
Dominic Canzone	4.4	.656	.180	.009	.166	.401	.935	.255	.328	.430	.758
Julio Rodríguez	4.3	.713	.173	.010	.160	.357	.882	.272	.342	.446	.787
Josh Naylor	4.2	.724	.178	.003	.120	.384	.583	.272	.345	.416	.761
Taylor Ward	4.1	.542	.155	.009	.105	.566	.934	.233	.347	.374	.720
Cal Raleigh	4.0	.428	.121	.002	.185	.485	1.125	.213	.318	.410	.728
Cole Young	3.9	.642	.150	.029	.084	.354	.619	.262	.338	.395	.734
Leo Rivas	3.7	.501	.087	.014	.039	.493	1.016	.201	.318	.273	.591

Data notes: home starter Kade Anderson: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Kade Anderson: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections