Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Shota Imanaga vs Bryce Miller · 69°F

3.4% edge · Seattle Mariners

Chicago Cubs win

48.7%

Seattle Mariners win

51.3%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

8.16

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.14)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.02)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.16

Over

50.4%

Under

49.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	48.7%	-113	+105
Seattle Mariners	51.3%	+105	-105

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Shota Imanaga LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.4	5.4	5.2	1.3	2.4
Bryce Miller RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.1	4.7	4.9	1.7	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Shota Imanaga4+ 80%6+ 45%8+ 16%

Bryce Miller4+ 71%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.8	.623	.182	.050	.211	.347	1.293	.244	.309	.455	.763
Seiya Suzuki	4.7	.618	.189	.011	.183	.455	1.252	.240	.319	.423	.742
Michael Busch	4.5	.582	.164	.026	.173	.460	1.131	.235	.322	.418	.739
Alex Bregman	4.4	.644	.170	.010	.136	.447	.713	.244	.328	.395	.723
Ian Happ	4.3	.510	.160	.013	.140	.505	1.207	.217	.315	.377	.692
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.821	.171	.013	.052	.275	.427	.271	.326	.362	.688
Pedro Ramírez	4.1	.717	.154	.029	.073	.248	.835	.254	.305	.367	.671
Michael Conforto	4.0	.487	.154	.007	.128	.394	1.113	.218	.304	.374	.678
Carson Kelly	3.9	.567	.120	.007	.107	.348	.808	.228	.305	.358	.662

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.5	.610	.184	.009	.183	.374	1.136	.246	.328	.434	.762
Dominic Canzone	4.4	.630	.177	.007	.221	.297	1.005	.254	.310	.464	.774
Julio Rodríguez	4.3	.682	.161	.012	.230	.267	.955	.272	.325	.491	.816
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.419	.116	.002	.264	.377	1.250	.213	.292	.455	.747
Josh Naylor	4.1	.676	.171	.004	.165	.282	.612	.269	.325	.447	.772
Weston Wilson	4.0	.471	.115	.008	.155	.298	1.235	.205	.271	.369	.639
Cole Young	3.9	.613	.143	.024	.114	.275	.661	.253	.315	.404	.718
Victor Robles	3.7	.620	.145	.027	.050	.212	.824	.244	.299	.345	.644
Leo Rivas	3.6	.485	.081	.014	.054	.373	1.040	.199	.292	.284	.575

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections