Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Aaron Nola vs George Kirby · 76°F

3.7% edge · Seattle Mariners

Philadelphia Phillies win

46.1%

Seattle Mariners win

53.9%

Fair line (home)

-117

Proj. total

8.7

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.25)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.45)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.7

Over

47.5%

Under

44.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	46.1%	-103	+117
Seattle Mariners	53.9%	-105	-117

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Aaron Nola RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.2	5.2	5.3	1.7	2.6
George Kirby RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.6	4.8	5.9	1.3	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Aaron Nola4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 14%

George Kirby4+ 72%6+ 34%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.500	.123	.010	.299	.570	1.517	.225	.325	.476	.801
Trea Turner	4.7	.818	.188	.020	.136	.239	.938	.265	.309	.411	.720
Bryce Harper	4.5	.649	.212	.015	.194	.482	1.024	.265	.348	.470	.818
Luis Arraez	4.5	1.020	.186	.035	.052	.188	.223	.306	.340	.404	.743
Alec Bohm	4.3	.764	.186	.013	.117	.240	.681	.267	.315	.406	.721
Bryson Stott	4.2	.721	.160	.033	.088	.303	.746	.256	.313	.381	.695
Brandon Marsh	4.1	.666	.163	.020	.122	.288	1.160	.255	.311	.405	.716
Justin Crawford	4.0	.765	.162	.029	.050	.198	.824	.267	.309	.365	.674
Garrett Stubbs	3.9	.566	.124	.007	.074	.241	.986	.215	.274	.316	.590

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.6	.658	.195	.007	.172	.420	1.184	.254	.340	.433	.773
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.666	.186	.010	.212	.323	1.044	.260	.318	.464	.782
Julio Rodríguez	4.4	.735	.169	.012	.210	.309	.980	.280	.339	.485	.824
Josh Naylor	4.3	.760	.185	.004	.149	.316	.661	.281	.339	.445	.785
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.453	.129	.003	.238	.447	1.238	.224	.315	.456	.772
Cole Young	4.0	.678	.164	.026	.108	.306	.719	.264	.328	.411	.739
Taylor Ward	3.9	.522	.149	.009	.143	.458	.985	.238	.333	.410	.743
J.P. Crawford	3.8	.589	.147	.004	.088	.440	.812	.247	.340	.371	.711
Brock Rodden	3.7	.504	.152	.017	.107	.213	1.112	.225	.276	.371	.646

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections