Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

August 24, 2026 · Zack Wheeler vs Logan Gilbert · 72°F

0.9% edge · Seattle Mariners

Philadelphia Phillies win

50.9%

Seattle Mariners win

49.1%

Fair line (home)

+104

Proj. total

7.71

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.00)Seattle Mariners (mean 3.71)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

7.71

Over

57.7%

Under

42.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	50.9%	-112	-104
Seattle Mariners	49.1%	+103	+104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Zack Wheeler RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.3	6.4	4.6	1.5	2.0
Logan Gilbert RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.6	5.5	5.4	1.5	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Zack Wheeler4+ 90%6+ 64%8+ 30%

Logan Gilbert4+ 82%6+ 49%8+ 18%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.442	.112	.008	.272	.601	1.661	.204	.312	.435	.747
Trea Turner	4.6	.773	.171	.020	.131	.246	1.069	.252	.298	.391	.689
Bryce Harper	4.5	.593	.202	.013	.189	.525	1.147	.252	.344	.453	.797
Luis Arraez	4.4	.970	.177	.038	.056	.206	.269	.297	.335	.398	.732
Alec Bohm	4.3	.732	.172	.012	.111	.253	.782	.255	.306	.386	.692
Bryson Stott	4.2	.661	.152	.028	.085	.338	.836	.241	.305	.361	.666
Brandon Marsh	4.1	.614	.152	.020	.112	.306	1.263	.238	.299	.378	.677
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.568	.147	.009	.102	.229	1.075	.224	.281	.352	.633
Justin Crawford	3.9	.709	.151	.029	.045	.209	.876	.258	.303	.353	.656

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.5	.598	.180	.007	.127	.394	1.294	.231	.322	.376	.699
Dominic Canzone	4.4	.625	.174	.009	.164	.300	1.173	.241	.299	.410	.709
Julio Rodríguez	4.3	.692	.170	.008	.168	.276	1.082	.264	.321	.439	.760
Josh Naylor	4.2	.707	.177	.003	.125	.304	.744	.264	.323	.409	.733
Taylor Ward	4.1	.531	.155	.008	.115	.459	1.150	.226	.321	.370	.691
Cal Raleigh	4.0	.392	.116	.003	.186	.403	1.315	.198	.289	.391	.680
Cole Young	3.9	.624	.141	.029	.087	.281	.780	.250	.316	.380	.696
Weston Wilson	3.7	.442	.109	.007	.116	.294	1.286	.197	.267	.335	.602
Brock Rodden	3.6	.468	.133	.014	.090	.187	1.185	.208	.257	.336	.593

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections