Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Jesús Luzardo vs Bryan Woo · 73°F

0.4% edge · Seattle Mariners

Philadelphia Phillies win

54.2%

Seattle Mariners win

45.8%

Fair line (home)

+118

Proj. total

7.88

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.23)Seattle Mariners (mean 3.66)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.88

Over

47.4%

Under

40.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	54.2%	-126	-118
Seattle Mariners	45.8%	+116	+118

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jesús Luzardo LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.8	7.5	4.8	2.1	2.2
Bryan Woo RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.5	5.0	5.5	1.4	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Jesús Luzardo4+ 96%6+ 79%8+ 49%

Bryan Woo4+ 76%6+ 38%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.469	.116	.009	.289	.594	1.592	.214	.320	.456	.776
Trea Turner	4.7	.790	.189	.020	.137	.253	.994	.260	.306	.407	.713
Bryce Harper	4.5	.628	.199	.017	.205	.512	1.096	.262	.350	.474	.823
Luis Arraez	4.4	.996	.183	.035	.053	.203	.237	.301	.339	.399	.738
Alec Bohm	4.3	.742	.178	.010	.116	.242	.736	.258	.307	.393	.700
Bryson Stott	4.2	.686	.158	.029	.084	.323	.784	.246	.308	.366	.674
Brandon Marsh	4.1	.624	.165	.020	.117	.310	1.210	.245	.307	.392	.699
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.581	.151	.010	.112	.225	1.014	.230	.286	.367	.653
Justin Crawford	3.9	.715	.159	.030	.050	.203	.825	.261	.304	.362	.666

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Taylor Ward	4.5	.579	.168	.010	.135	.546	1.267	.227	.328	.379	.707
Randy Arozarena	4.4	.610	.179	.008	.129	.420	1.262	.240	.332	.390	.723
Julio Rodríguez	4.3	.699	.167	.010	.175	.326	1.103	.268	.332	.449	.781
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.425	.122	.002	.198	.434	1.420	.201	.292	.394	.687
Patrick Wisdom	4.1	.382	.123	.008	.213	.314	1.563	.194	.262	.402	.664
J.P. Crawford	4.0	.583	.148	.004	.076	.497	.944	.235	.337	.346	.683
Weston Wilson	3.9	.451	.114	.008	.116	.339	1.335	.196	.272	.332	.604
Jhonny Pereda	3.8	.605	.141	.006	.053	.307	.955	.236	.305	.327	.632
Brock Rodden	3.6	.481	.138	.011	.087	.191	1.218	.211	.260	.334	.594

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections